建信期货国债日报-20251128

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index Futures) [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views - The domestic fundamental situation has been weakening marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerating decline in the investment sector, which still poses a significant drag on credit expansion. The monetary policy has begun to send signals of easing, and the positive factors for the bond market are accumulating. However, in the short term, it is difficult for the easing to materialize, and the bond market is in a period of shock and energy accumulation. Investors should pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices. In the short term, during the data vacuum period and with important meetings in December approaching, the market is waiting for policies. After the tax period this week, the capital market may become looser, which will support the bond market. Although the new regulations on fund sales fees bring short - term uncertainties, they do not affect the long - term allocation behavior of institutions. The negative impact of the central bank's bond - buying is unproven, and as long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates continues and the adjustment risk is limited. The impact from the sentiment provides a good opportunity for layout [11][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Situation: Concerns about the new regulations for public funds still exist, and the bond market continues to fluctuate weakly [8]. - Interest Rate Bonds: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities have risen comprehensively, with the long - end yields rising by about 1bp. As of 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250016 reported 1.845%, up 1.1bp [9]. - Funding Market: The inter - bank funding market is loose and is expected to cross the month smoothly. The central bank made a net injection of 564 million yuan today. The inter - bank funding sentiment index is stable, and the funds are becoming looser. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuates narrowly around 1.31%, the 7 - day interest rate rises 2.8bp to 1.45%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuates narrowly around 1.61 - 1.63% [10]. - Conclusion: The positive factors for the bond market are accumulating, but in the short term, it is difficult for the easing to materialize. The bond market is in a period of shock and energy accumulation. Investors should pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices. After the tax period this week, the capital market may become looser, which will support the bond market. The impact of the new regulations on fund sales fees is short - term, and the negative impact of the central bank's bond - buying is unproven. As long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates continues and the adjustment risk is limited. The impact from the sentiment provides a good opportunity for layout [11][12]. 4.2 Industry News - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will organize a Chinese business delegation to visit the United States in early December. The delegation will involve various fields and will conduct extensive exchanges with the US business and political circles [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in the past two years to support "hard investment" projects, and has also promoted a series of "soft construction" measures [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to study and formulate cost recognition standards for disorderly price competition to maintain market price order [13]. - The Ministry of Commerce has released the 2025 "Country Trade Guide" to help enterprises explore diversified markets [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on November 27, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. - Money Market: The report mentions the changes in inter - bank repurchase rates and SHIBOR, but specific data is mainly presented in the form of figures [27][32]. - Derivatives Market: The report shows the average curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swaps, but specific data is mainly presented in the form of figures [37].