建信期货棉花日报-20251128

Industry - The industry under research is cotton [1] Date - The report date is November 28, 2025 [2] Researchers - The researchers are Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton has been fluctuating and adjusting. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 is 14,891 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quoted price for machine - picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang (3130/29 - 30B, impurity within 3.5) is around 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a delivered basis. Some lower - priced ones are in the range of 14,500 - 14,600 yuan. The lower basis for the same - quality spot is CF01 + 1000 - 1150, and the higher selling basis is CF01 + 1150 - 1350, with sporadic low prices below 1000. The mainstream basis for machine - picked cotton of Grade 41 (non - light - spotted, double 29, impurity within 3.5) in Northern Xinjiang is CF01 + 900 and above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has weakened, with fewer new orders. Downstream buyers are mainly making purchases based on rigid demand. High - count yarns have maintained a relatively good sales trend recently, with prices basically stable. The prices of other types of yarns have either remained stable or declined, with some manufacturers reducing prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton [7] - The market for all - cotton garment greige fabrics has remained sluggish. The inventory level is still on the rise. For conventional varieties, due to poor demand, there is severe homogeneous competition, and some differentiated varieties also have low demand. In the export market, there is an obvious shortage of terminal orders, and the competition for orders among greige fabric mills is fierce [7] Operational Suggestions - Overseas markets have a time - lag in data. The easing of Sino - US relations has boosted a rebound, and they will mainly follow the domestic market in the short term. As of November 26, the cumulative inspection volume in China has reached 3.959 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from the previous day. The number of market orders downstream has not changed much. The spinning mills' operating rates are maintained, and the downstream finished - product inventory pressure is not high. Spinning enterprises are making rigid - demand purchases of raw materials. With limited changes in the fundamentals and cost support, it is advisable to try long positions on dips and pay attention to the performance of the upper - level resistance [8] 2. Industry News - According to CFTC, as of the week ending October 14, the number of non - commercial long positions of funds in CFTC US cotton futures was 73,228 (+2,326), turning from a decrease to an increase; the number of short positions was 138,860 (+9,536), also turning from a decrease to an increase. The total ICE position was 294,187 (+15,248), increasing for the eighth consecutive week. The net - long ratio was - 22.3%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous period and a decrease of 18 percentage points year - on - year [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [18][19][21]