建信期货集运指数日报-20251128

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index rose 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37 this week, better than expected, but the shipping company's price increase in December was less than expected. Maersk's price is the most aggressive, suppressing the price increase space of other airlines. Considering that February is a traditional peak season, the market may conduct incentive games for the pre-Spring Festival shipping rush, and the cost-effectiveness of shorting is not high. Pay attention to the possibility of the April contract being overestimated and the positive spread opportunity between the February and April contracts [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The SCFIS index rose 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37 this week, better than expected, but the shipping company's price increase in December was less than expected. Maersk's price is the most aggressive, suppressing the price increase space of other airlines. There is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Pay attention to the actual situation of cargo volume and price increase [8] - Operation Suggestion: Considering that February is a traditional peak season, the market may conduct incentive games for the pre-Spring Festival shipping rush, and the cost-effectiveness of shorting is not high. Pay attention to the possibility of the April contract being overestimated and the positive spread opportunity between the February and April contracts [8] 2. Industry News - China's Export Container Shipping Market: From November 17th to November 21st, China's export container shipping market was basically stable, and the freight rates in the long-distance routes showed an adjustment trend, with the composite index falling. On November 21st, the Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index was 1393.56 points, a 4.0% decrease from the previous period [9] - European Routes: The initial value of the eurozone's consumer confidence index in November was -14.2, lower than market expectations. The transportation demand lacked further growth momentum, and the spot market booking prices declined. On November 21st, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1367 US dollars/TEU, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean Routes: The supply-demand fundamentals were slightly better than those of the European routes, and the market freight rates increased slightly. On November 21st, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was 2055 US dollars/TEU, a 1.3% increase from the previous period [9] - North American Routes: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non-farm payrolls report was postponed to this week. Although the number of new jobs in September was better than expected, the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%. The transportation demand growth was weak, and the market freight rates continued to decline. On November 21st, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to the basic ports in the western and eastern United States were 1645 US dollars/FEU and 2384 US dollars/FEU respectively, a 9.8% and 8.3% decrease from the previous period [10] - International Situation: Tensions between Israel and Hamas escalated, and the situation in the Middle East was tense. The United States has informed mediators and partner countries that if Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel will be allowed to resume military operations [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS Index: The SCFIS index for European routes rose 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37, while the index for US Western routes fell 10.5% to 1107.85 [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - Futures Contracts: The trading data of container shipping futures contracts on November 27th showed that most contracts declined, with the EC2606 contract having the largest decline of 5.40% [6] 3.3 Shipping-Related Data Trends - Shipping Data: The report provides trends in shipping-related data such as European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai-Europe basic port freight rates [17][21]