瑞银展望-全球AI浪潮vs科技自立自强，如何共振

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry, driven by the growth of the AI sector and its demand for semiconductor products [1][2]. Core Insights - The AI industry is a key driver for semiconductor demand, with significant growth expected in DRAM, NAND Flash, and HBM markets, suggesting a sustained semiconductor industry cycle for over three years [1][2][3]. - China's semiconductor market is closely linked to the global market, and despite a weaker performance in 2023, it is expected to regain investor interest due to advancements in AI infrastructure and cloud computing [1][4]. - Significant progress has been made in China's AI infrastructure, particularly with Huawei's chip iterations and HBM cluster capabilities, leading to a projected 1.5% growth in semiconductor equipment capital expenditure by 2025 [1][5]. - The report highlights a trend of increasing capital expenditure among semiconductor manufacturers, with about 50% of surveyed respondents indicating plans for expansion in the second quarter of 2025 [1][8]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry Growth - The global semiconductor industry is projected to grow by approximately 17% in 2025, with an expected increase to 22% in 2026, primarily driven by the AI sector [2]. - AI technology significantly enhances the demand for various semiconductor products, with DRAM and NAND Flash markets expected to see marginal increases in the coming quarters [3]. China's Semiconductor Market - China's semiconductor index shows a high correlation with the global index, and future developments in AI infrastructure and cloud computing are expected to improve its market performance [4]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment sector is anticipated to see a 1.5% increase in capital expenditure by 2025, with a potential 5% growth in 2026 [5]. AI Infrastructure and Developments - China has made notable advancements in AI infrastructure, with significant contributions from companies like Huawei in chip development and HBM capabilities [5]. - The report indicates a positive outlook for the automotive sector, particularly in smart driving technologies, with a forecasted penetration rate of over 33% for SoCs by 2029 [9][10]. Investment Opportunities in PCB Sector - The report identifies investment opportunities in the PCB sector, particularly in BT packaging substrates and traditional copper-clad laminates, which are experiencing price increases due to rising demand and material costs [14][19].