大越期货尿素早报-20251128

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. The agricultural demand has increased due to the influence of Northeast China, while the industrial demand is mainly based on demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports has improved compared with the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1650 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea futures market will fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factor is the improvement in exports, while the negative factors are the domestic oversupply and the commissioning of new production capacities. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 4: Summary by Relevant Catalog Entries Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Daily production and operating rate have rebounded, comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has increased, industrial demand is based on demand. New production capacity commissioning increases supply pressure. Exports have improved, market sentiment is boosted, but overall supply exceeds demand. Spot price of delivery product is 1650 (+20), fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -18, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000), a bearish factor [4]. - Futures Market: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish sign [4]. - Expectation: The urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today, with industrial demand based on demand, agricultural demand increasing, and improved exports boosting market sentiment, but the domestic oversupply situation remains obvious [4]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Spot Price | Price Change | Futures Contract | Futures Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1650 | +20 | 01 Contract | 1668 | +14 | | Shandong Spot | 1650 | +20 | Basis | -18 | +6 | | Henan Spot | 1650 | 0 | UR01 | 1668 | +14 | | FOB China | 2833 | - | UR05 | 1727 | +9 | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1736 | +4 | [6] Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]