《黑色》日报-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - This week, the seasonal decline in hot metal production and stable apparent demand led to a relatively balanced steel market. However, the weak performance of iron ore and coking coal caused steel prices to decline within a certain range. The expected price range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400 yuan. There is no obvious unilateral driving force, and attention can be paid to the arbitrage operations of going long on rebar and short on iron ore in the January contract, as well as the convergence arbitrage of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the January contract [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, iron ore futures fluctuated. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipments decreased last week, while the arrivals at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the steel mills' profit margins continued to decline, hot metal production decreased, and the demand for restocking increased. In the inventory aspect, port inventories increased, the port clearance volume increased, and the steel mills' equity iron ore inventories decreased. Without new macro - driving factors, it is difficult for iron ore to have an independent unilateral market, and it is expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coke futures declined with oscillations, and the night session continued to be weak. After the fourth round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises was fully implemented, there are expectations of price cuts. The coking industry's profit has been restored, and production has increased. On the demand side, steel mills' losses have increased, hot metal production has declined, and steel prices have fluctuated weakly, so steel mills have the intention to suppress coke prices. Coking coal futures showed a weak oscillating trend, and the spot market weakened, resulting in a pattern of simultaneous decline in futures and spot. The supply side has some short - term disruptions, and the import volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly. It is recommended to take a bearish view on both coke and coking coal in a volatile manner, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage for both [8]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan; rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 11 yuan, 11 yuan, and 6 yuan respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in North China and South China decreased by 10 yuan, while the price in East China remained unchanged; hot - rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 14 yuan, 13 yuan, and 11 yuan respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 10 yuan, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 12 yuan, 2 yuan, and 12 yuan respectively. The profits of rebar in East China and North China decreased by 2 yuan and 12 yuan respectively, while the profit in South China decreased by 2 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons to 206.1 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, among which electric - furnace production increased by 2.6 tons to 29.3 tons, an increase of 9.5%, and converter production decreased by 4.4 tons to 176.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.0 tons to 319.0 tons, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 2.3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 400.9 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 9.3, a decrease of 0.5%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.2 to 888.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.8 to 227.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.2 to 320.2 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 01 contract for some iron ore varieties decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.0 to 26.5, an increase of 12.8% [5]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of PB powder and Jinbuba powder at Rizhao Port increased by 1 yuan, while the prices of other varieties remained unchanged. The Singapore Exchange's 62% Fe swap increased by 0.1 to 104.9 dollars/ton, and the Platts 62% Fe increased by 0.8 to 107.4 [5]. Supply - The weekly arrivals at 45 ports increased by 548.2 tons to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The global weekly shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The monthly national import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [5]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 1.7 tons to 331.6 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The monthly national crude steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [5]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventories increased by 108.6 tons to 15210.12 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The imported iron ore inventories of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 20 days [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the prices of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and coke futures contracts 01 and 05 decreased. The coking industry's profit increased by 11 yuan to - 24 yuan [8]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal futures contracts 01 and 05 decreased, and the sample coal mine profit decreased by 6 yuan to 587 yuan [8]. Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.4 tons to 851.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3%, and the clean coal production decreased by 1.8 tons to 433.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4% [8]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills increased [8]. Inventory Changes - Coke total inventories increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. Coking coal inventories showed a mixed trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [8]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 1.5 tons to - 43 tons, an increase of 34.2% [8].