《能源化工》日报-20251128

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight reduction in inventory. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with ample imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural films. Overall, the 01 contract still faces significant pressure [2]. Crude Oil - During the US Thanksgiving, trading was light, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were uncertain, leading to a slight increase in overnight oil prices. However, due to OPEC+ continuous production increase and record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern remains weak. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with short - term focus on the $60/barrel support for Brent crude and the results of the Russia - Ukraine talks [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, domestic production areas are gradually entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam need time to recede, providing strong cost support. However, the arrival of overseas shipments is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the market mainly digests channel inventory. Natural rubber is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation, with the price likely to weaken if raw material supply is smooth, and to run in the 15000 - 15500 range if supply is restricted [6]. Methanol - In the inland market, Jiutai's maintenance is over, and subsequent domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, marginal inland plants are in the red. In Iran, some plants have started gas - restricted shutdowns, improving market sentiment and strengthening the futures price and basis. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [8][9]. LPG No specific overall view provided in the given content. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: New production capacity and plant restarts are expected, and although some plants are reducing production, supply remains loose. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some loss - making varieties are reducing production. Port inventory is rising, and short - term prices may be dragged down by oil prices. The strategy is to short on rebounds for BZ2603 in the short term. - Styrene: With profit recovery, some plants are increasing production, but planned and unplanned shutdowns and maintenance are also increasing, limiting supply. Downstream demand support is limited, and overseas blending demand is cooling, but there are still export expectations. The short - term supply - demand outlook is improving, but the rebound space is limited. EB01 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term supply is relatively high, and demand is weak due to PTA plant maintenance and weakening terminal demand. The short - term driver is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is tight, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. - PTA: Supply reduction exceeds expectations, and demand from polyester is supported. Exports are expected to increase. The supply - demand outlook is improving, and the basis is recovering. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and the strategy is to go long on the TA month - spread at low levels. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Polyester demand provides some support, but supply from coal - based plants is increasing, and imports are expected to be high. The port inventory has limited downward space. The strategy is to short the EG1 - 5 spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price has limited drivers, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The strategy is to short the processing fee [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Recent production has declined, and inventory has decreased, supporting the futures price. However, the medium - term oversupply problem persists, and demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. The supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds. - Glass: News of production line shutdowns in Hubei has boosted the market sentiment, and the futures price has rebounded, driving better spot sales. There is still some short - term rigid demand, but long - term demand is a concern, especially with the approaching winter in the north. The market still needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. The 01 contract may face pressure near the delivery month [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The industry still faces supply - demand pressure. Regional supply in East China will decrease next week, but with the monthly contract signing, the spot price in East China is expected to decline if the futures price remains weakening. The demand from the main downstream, alumina, is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the long term. - PVC: The spot market remains weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is sluggish, especially during the traditional off - season from November to January. Although the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial, the expected anti - dumping tax implementation limits external demand. The supply - demand pattern is in surplus, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [16]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: L2601 and L2605 prices decreased slightly, while PP2601 and PP2605 prices increased. L15, LP01 spreads decreased, and PP15 spread increased. Spot prices of some products changed slightly [2]. - Inventory: PE and PP inventories decreased, with PE enterprise inventory down 9.80% and PP enterprise inventory down 8.00% [2]. - 开工率: PE device operating rate increased by 2.17%, and PP powder operating rate increased by 6.93%, while PP device operating rate decreased slightly [2]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: Brent and WTI prices increased slightly, while SC price decreased. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased [4]. - Refined Oil: NYM RBOB price increased, while NYM ULSD and ICE Gasoil prices decreased [4]. Natural Rubber - Prices and Spreads: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices increased slightly, and some spreads changed [6]. - Fundamentals: September production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed, and October tire production, exports, and natural rubber imports decreased [6]. - Inventory: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased, while some出库 and入库 rates changed [6]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, and some spreads and basis changed [8]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19%, while port and social inventories decreased [8]. - 开工率: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed, with downstream - formaldehyde operating rate increasing by 2.73% [9]. LPG - Prices and Spreads: PG2512, PG2601, etc. prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [11]. - Inventory: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory decreased [11]. - 开工率: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene changed slightly, and some spreads decreased [13]. - Styrene - related Prices and Spreads: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [13]. - Inventory: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [13]. - 开工率: Some industry operating rates such as domestic pure benzene and styrene changed [13]. Ester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed slightly [14]. - Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows: Prices of some polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed slightly, and cash flows and processing fees of some products changed [14]. - 开工率: Some industry operating rates such as PTA, MEG, and polyester changed [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads: Glass and soda ash spot and futures prices changed slightly, and some basis changed [15]. - Supply: Soda ash production and float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased [15]. - Inventory: Glass and soda ash inventories decreased [15]. - Real Estate Data: New construction area, construction area, etc. changed, with some showing a decline [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Prices and Spreads: Prices of caustic soda and PVC changed slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [16]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC decreased, and export profits changed [16]. - Supply: Caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly [16]. - Demand: Operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed [16]. - Inventory: Some inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed [16].