PTA、MEG早报-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, recent supply reduction is more than expected, polyester load is strong, and India's BIS cancellation boosts export demand, reversing the inventory accumulation expectation and potentially leading to phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, this week's main port arrivals are moderately low, and port inventory may slightly compress early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, putting pressure on some short - process oil chemical plants. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - PTA: - Fundamental: Futures fluctuated and closed down, spot market negotiation was average, and the spot basis loosened. Different delivery - time spot had corresponding transaction prices and basis. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 36 [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 4615, 01 - contract basis is - 17, and the futures price is at a premium [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main - force position: Net long position, with long positions decreasing [5]. - Expectation: Supply reduction, strong polyester load, and increased export demand may lead to de - stocking, and the spot basis is strong. The absolute price follows the cost - end [5]. - MEG: - Fundamental: On Thursday, the price fluctuated and weakened, and the basis continued to decline. Spot and foreign - exchange prices had corresponding performances [8]. - Basis: Spot price is 3889, 01 - contract basis is 16, and the futures price is at a discount [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 70.7 tons, an increase of 7.2 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main - force position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [8]. - Expectation: Port arrivals are moderately low this week, and inventory may slightly decrease next week. However, there are still arrival plans in early December. The price is at a low level, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents PTA's production capacity, output, consumption, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity utilization, supply - demand gap, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [12]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Shows ethylene glycol's total production, new - added capacity, supply, demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production rate, supply - demand gap, and inventory changes [13]. - Price: Lists the prices of various products on November 27 and 26, 2025, including spot and futures prices of PTA, MEG, and related products, as well as processing fees and profits [14]. - Inventory Analysis: Displays historical inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products, including factory inventory and port inventory [44][46]. - Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates: Shows the historical start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester, and related industries [56][58][60]. - Profit Analysis: Presents the historical profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester products, including processing fees and production profits [64][67][70].