贵金属早报-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are oscillating due to the glimmer of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the suspension of U.S. stocks, and the combined influence of the return of Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The premium of Shanghai gold maintains an oscillation around - 3.2 yuan/gram. The support for gold prices has significantly weakened with the improvement of factors such as Fed rate cuts and Sino - U.S. tariff concerns [4]. - Silver prices are also oscillating. The premium of Shanghai silver converges to 310 yuan/gram, and the sentiment of Shanghai silver remains strong. Silver prices are mainly following gold prices, and influenced by multiple factors, they are oscillating at a high level [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The U.S. dollar index dropped 0.03% to 99.55, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar to 7.0742, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.3% to $4189.6 per ounce. The basis is - 5.26, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of gold futures warrants is 90423 kilograms, unchanged. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long position increases [4][5]. - Silver: The U.S. dollar index dropped 0.03% to 99.55, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar to 7.0742, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.41% to $53.825 per ounce. The basis is - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 546976 kilograms, with a daily increase of 15765 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long position decreases [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. However, the support for gold prices has weakened significantly as factors such as the Fed rate cut and Sino - U.S. tariff concerns have improved [10]. - Silver: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to an enlarged increase. The factors affecting silver prices are similar to those of gold, with both positive and negative factors coexisting [14]. 3. Today's Focus - Data to be released include Japan's October unemployment rate, November Tokyo CPI, October retail sales, and industrial output preliminary value; France's Q3 GDP final value and October CPI preliminary value; Switzerland's Q3 GDP; India's Q3 GDP; Germany's November CPI preliminary value; Canada's September GDP. The U.S. stock market will close early, and China's November official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI will be released on Sunday [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 5.26, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 90423 kilograms, unchanged [5]. - Silver: The basis is - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 546976 kilograms, with a daily increase of 15765 kilograms [6]. 5. Position Data - Gold: On November 27, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1242 to 166495, a decrease of 0.74%; the short position volume decreased by 938 to 60457, a decrease of 1.53%; the net position decreased by 304 to 106038, a decrease of 0.29% [30]. - Silver: On November 27, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 27850 to 389587, an increase of 7.70%; the short position volume increased by 27026 to 296616, an increase of 10.02%; the net position increased by 824 to 92971, an increase of 0.89% [31]. - ETF Position: The SPDR gold ETF position shows an oscillating increase, and the silver ETF position shows an oscillating decrease but remains higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - Warehouse Receipts: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts show a slight increase, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continue to decrease but remain at a high level. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts show a slight increase and are at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [37][38][40].