沪锌期货早报-20251128

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the Shanghai Zinc ZN2601 will experience a weakening trend in a fluctuating manner. The market's short - term outlook is also expected to be weakening due to factors such as the long - term average price support, the short - term KDJ index rising in the weak zone, and the trend indicator showing an increase in bullish power and a decrease in bearish power, with the two forces becoming more evenly matched. [2][19] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, the global zinc sheet production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, the global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, indicating a positive fundamental situation. [2] 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,550, with a basis of + 135, suggesting a positive situation. [2] 3. Inventory Analysis - On November 27, the LME zinc inventory increased by 875 tons to 50,800 tons compared to the previous day, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 2,502 tons to 69,118 tons, presenting a neutral situation. The total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 162,400 tons on November 17 to 140,400 tons on November 27. [2][5] 4. Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, indicating a neutral situation. [2] 5. Main Position Analysis - The main players held a net short position, with an increase in short positions, suggesting a negative situation. [2] 6. Zinc Futures Market on November 27 - The total trading volume of zinc futures on that day was 172,956 lots, with a total trading value of 1.94385952 billion yuan. The open interest was 189,741 lots, a decrease of 329 lots. [3] 7. Domestic Spot Market on November 27 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,300 yuan/metal ton for domestic products and 80 US dollars/dry ton for imported products. The price of 0 zinc ingots in different regions ranged from 22,310 - 22,660 yuan/ton. [4] 8. Zinc Ingot Inventory in Major Markets from November 17 - 27 - The total inventory decreased from 162,400 tons on November 17 to 140,400 tons on November 27, a decrease of 19,400 tons compared to November 20 and 11,200 tons compared to November 24. [5] 9. SHFE Zinc Warrants Report on November 27 - The total SHFE zinc warrants were 69,118 tons, a decrease of 2,502 tons compared to the previous day. [6] 10. LME Zinc Inventory on November 27 - The LME zinc inventory was 50,800 tons, an increase of 875 tons compared to the previous day, with registered warrants of 45,325 tons and cancelled warrants of 5,475 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 10.78%. [8] 11. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and a 2.88% increase compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%, and the planned production for November was 522,300 tons. [15] 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on November 27 - The processing fees for zinc concentrates with a 50% grade in different regions ranged from 2,100 - 2,800 yuan/metal ton for domestic products and 70 - 90 US dollars/dry ton for imported products. [17] 13. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on November 27 - The total trading volume of members was 179,536 lots, an increase of 31,801 lots. The total long position was 71,497 lots, a decrease of 406 lots, and the total short position was 71,943 lots, an increase of 1,795 lots. [18]