大越期货纯碱早报-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate and move downward mainly [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamental analysis shows that alkali plant production is at a high level, with the expected commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and soda ash plant inventories are at historical highs, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - The basis is - 36 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - National soda ash plant inventories are 1.5874 million tons, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, bearish [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, bearish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are decreasing, bearish [2]. - Overall, the short - term outlook for soda ash is expected to be mainly in a fluctuating and downward trend [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year, with industry production at historical highs [4]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1175 | 1140 | - 35 | | Current Value | 1176 | 1140 | - 36 | | Change Rate | 0.09% | 0.00% | 2.86% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is - 221.5 yuan/ton, at historical lows [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.80% [19]. - The weekly soda ash production is 720,900 tons, including 396,200 tons of heavy soda ash, at historical highs [21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with a total planned new capacity of 1.57 billion tons, and 100 million tons have been actually commissioned in 2025 [22]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Demand - The weekly soda ash production and sales rate is 100.93% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,100 tons, and the operating rate is 74.85% [28]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Inventory National soda ash plant inventories are 1.5874 million tons, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 3.9 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The historical supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, and supply - demand differences from 2017 to 2024E, as well as the growth rates of various indicators [36].