大越期货玻璃早报-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short term. The supply of glass has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - The fundamentals show that production profit repair is weak, supply contraction is less than expected, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historical high in the same period [2]. - The basis is - 53 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot [2]. - The national floating glass enterprise inventory is 62.362 million weight boxes, a 1.49% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. 3.2 Influence Factor Summary - Likely to be favorable: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs lead to production losses [4]. - Likely to be unfavorable: Real estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing factories are cautious, mainly digesting raw glass inventories [5]. 3.3 Main Logic and Risk Points - Main logic: Glass supply has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising, so it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend at a low level [6]. - Risk points: The intensity of the "anti - involution" policy exceeds expectations [6]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1041 yuan/ton, with a 0.39% increase; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass is 988 yuan/ton, with no change; the main basis is - 53 yuan, with an 8.16% increase [7]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 988 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Cost side: No detailed data is provided in the text. - Production side: The number of operating floating glass production lines nationwide is 222, with an operating rate of 74.85%, and the production line operating number is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting volume is 158,100 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low in the same period [23][25]. - Demand side: In September 2025, the apparent consumption of floating glass was 4.7082 million tons [28]. - Inventory: The inventory of national floating glass enterprises is 62.362 million weight boxes, a 1.49% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][41]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: Data from 2017 - 2024E shows the production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio of floating glass. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate is 3.94% [42].