广发早知道：汇总版-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors in the futures market, including financial derivatives, precious metals, base metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It offers insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and provides operation suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: A - share markets had mixed performance with some indices rising and others falling. The four major index futures contracts declined, and the basis discount was repaired. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and suggest a wait - and - see approach, with a possible light - position short - put option strategy [2][3][4]. - Treasury Futures: Treasury futures mostly declined. The market sentiment is weak in the short - term, but there may be a rebound if the central bank's bond - buying scale exceeds expectations. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the 2603 contract cash - and - carry strategy [5][8]. Precious Metals - Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are analyzed. The long - term bull market in precious metals is expected to continue due to factors such as central bank purchases and increased allocation of financial - attribute commodities. Short - term price fluctuations may be intensified by factors like Fed officials' divergence and economic data. Specific strategies are provided for each metal, such as holding silver long - positions and a long - platinum short - palladium hedge [9][11][12]. Commodity Futures Base Metals - Copper: The price is expected to be volatile and upward - biased in the short - term, with 12 - month interest rate cut expectations and improving downstream demand. The mid - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports a rising price bottom [13][16]. - Alumina: The market is in a bottom - range oscillation. The supply shows signs of contraction, and the inventory accumulation rate is slowing down. The price is expected to remain in the 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton range [17][19]. - Aluminum: The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, with a strong - expectation and weak - reality situation. The overseas supply risk and domestic weak demand are in a stand - off [20][21]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. The cost is supportive, and the demand shows resilience, but high prices still suppress overall procurement [22][23]. - Zinc: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure eases, and the demand shows structural improvement. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the squeeze risk eases slightly [24][27]. - Tin: The price is expected to be strong and oscillating. The supply is tight, and the demand in the South China region shows resilience [28][31]. - Nickel: The price is expected to oscillate in a range. The low - valuation and production cuts drive a small - scale recovery, but the overall upward drive is limited [32][34]. - Stainless Steel: The price is expected to oscillate. The cost support weakens, and the supply pressure remains high, with weak demand in the off - season [35][37]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The market may have increased divergence, with a current situation of strong supply and demand and social inventory reduction [38][41]. - Polysilicon: The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. The spot price stabilizes, while the silicon wafer and cell prices continue to fall [41][43]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to oscillate in a low - level range. The supply decreases, and the demand is not optimistic, with inventory accumulation pressure [44][45]. Black Metals - Steel: The price is expected to have a central - downward movement in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - rebar short - iron ore arbitrage [47][49]. - Iron Ore: The price is expected to run weakly in the short - term. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is difficult to have an independent unilateral market without new macro - drivers [50][52]. - Coking Coal: The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand for replenishment weakens [53][57]. - Coke: The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish. The supply increases, the demand weakens, and the inventory is moderately increasing [58][59]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The soybean meal market is in a loose pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate. There is a risk of a decline after short - term chasing [60][62]. - Pig: The supply pressure remains, and it is necessary to pay attention to the logic of production capacity reduction [63].