广发期货日评-20251128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Equity Index: Domestic equity indices are resilient, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. In Q4 2025, the A - share market is in a repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations include periodic corrections and rebounds, with limited downside risks. The technology sector is showing a structural recovery, but the market volume is shrinking. It is recommended to wait and see, and one can try to lightly sell put options at support levels [2]. - Treasury Bonds: The short - term weak market sentiment may continue. Potential factors to break the current range include the implementation of new bond fund redemption fee regulations, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the month, and the release of November economic data. It is recommended to wait and see for the single - side strategy, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract in the cash - futures strategy [2]. - Precious Metals: Gold prices have broken through previous resistance and are expected to rise above $4200. Silver prices may approach the previous high of $54 under the influence of the delivery period. Long positions can be held. For platinum, a low - buying strategy is recommended, or one can buy out - of - the - money call options and try a long - platinum short - palladium hedge [2]. - Shipping Index: The EC (European Line) main contract is weakly oscillating, with a short - term weak trend [2]. - Steel and Iron Ore: Steel mills are reducing production. A long - steel short - iron ore arbitrage and narrowing the spread between hot - rolled and rebar are recommended. Iron ore is oscillating in the range of 750 - 820 [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal is viewed as oscillating downward, with a range of 1010 - 1120, and a 1 - 5 spread arbitrage can be considered. Coke is also expected to oscillate downward after four rounds of price increases, with a range of 1500 - 1650 [2]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Different non - ferrous metals have different trends. For example, copper is in a certain price range, and tin prices are strongly oscillating. Specific trading strategies are provided for each metal [2]. - New Energy: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate futures have their own price trends. For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see due to large intraday fluctuations [2]. - Chemical Products: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and price trend. For example, PTA is expected to have a short - term high - level oscillation, and short - fiber processing fees are expected to be compressed [2]. - Agricultural Products: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, palm oil may test the resistance at 8600, and sugar is in a bottom - level oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - Equity Index: IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512 are in a narrow - range oscillation. The A - share market is in adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see or lightly sell put options [2]. - Treasury Bonds: TF2603, TS2603, TI2603 are oscillating downward. Wait and see for single - side strategies and consider positive arbitrage for the 2603 contract [2]. - Precious Metals: AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, PD2606 have different price trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. Black Metals - Steel and Iron Ore: RB2601, I2601. Steel mills' production cuts lead to a long - steel short - iron ore arbitrage strategy. Iron ore oscillates between 750 - 820 [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: JM2601, J2601. Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate downward, with specific price ranges and arbitrage suggestions [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper, Aluminum, etc.: CU2601, AL2601, etc. Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions based on supply - demand and market conditions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon and Lithium Carbonate: PS2601, LC2605. Polysilicon is in a high - level oscillation, and lithium carbonate has large intraday fluctuations, with a wait - and - see recommendation [2]. Chemical Products - PX, PTA, etc.: PX2601, TA2601, etc. Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and price trends, with corresponding trading strategies [2]. Agricultural Products - Grains, Oils, etc.: M2601, RM601, LH2601, etc. Different agricultural products have different price trends and trading suggestions, such as long - short arbitrage for some products [2].