Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the futures market declined significantly due to the near - end price and resumption of shipping expectations. The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic and follows the spot price, with an expected range of around 1550 - 1600 points. Contracts P2 and P3 are related to the second - half of December cabin space, and the freight rate is expected to be stable with a slight increase [3]. - The EC2602 contract has a low valuation. The key to going long is to wait for the signal of cargo volume explosion. There is no overly pessimistic expectation because the cargo volume on the European route has been good this year, and the price cut in December for inventory stocking is beneficial for the price increase in January. If the peak season is realized later, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential [3]. - The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data | Contract | Yesterday's Price | Change | Yesterday's Volume | Yesterday's Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 | 1612.9 | - 0.59% | 1493 | 5232 | - 302 | | EC2602 | 1387.7 | 0.02% | 24978 | 42968 | - 1089 | | EC2604 | 1054.6 | - 1.64% | 566 | 18701 | 703 | | EC2606 | 1190.1 | - 4.94% | 719 | 2186 | 200 | | EC2608 | 1310.8 | - 5.43% | 433 | 1650 | 32 | | EC2610 | 1012.2 | - 4.13% | 1174 | 3700 | 611 | [2] Month - spread Data | Month - spread | Previous Day | Two Days Ago | Three Days Ago | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 - 2504 | 558.3 | 550.2 | 523.6 | 8.1 | - 42.3 | | EC2512 - 2602 | 225.2 | 235.0 | 196.5 | - 9.8 | 102.0 | | EC2502 - 2604 | 333.1 | 315.2 | 327.1 | 17.9 | - 144.3 | [2] Index Data | Index | Update Frequency | Announcement Date | Unit | Current Value | Previous Value | Two Periods Ago | Current Change | Previous Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/11/24 | Points | 1639.37 | 1357.67 | 1504.80 | 20.75% | - 9.78% | | SCFI (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/11/21 | USD/TEU | 1367 | 1417 | 1323 | - 3.55% | 7.11% | | CCFI | Weekly | 2025/11/21 | Points | 1432.96 | 1403.64 | 1366.85 | 2.09% | 2.69% | | NCFI | Weekly | 2025/11/21 | Points | 951.65 | 979.34 | 911.73 | - 2.83% | 7.42% | [2] Recent European Route Spot Situation - Week 49: The offline quotes of GEMINI and PA alliances are between 2300 - 2500, and OA is between 2300 - 2600, with an average of about 2400 US dollars (equivalent to about 1650 points on the futures market) [4]. - Week 50: Maersk opened at 2200 US dollars, PA dropped to 1900 - 2200, and OA remained at 2400 - 2500. The central price may be between 2200 - 2300 US dollars (1550 - 1600 points). On Thursday, YML cut the price to 1900, and ONE cut it to 2200 (with a combined volume of 2000 - 2100) [4]. Related News - On November 28, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry condemned the Israeli army for shooting and killing two Palestinians in the West Bank [5]. - On November 27, the Israeli army stated that it had attacked multiple Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon [5].
集运早报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-11-28 02:52