大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251128

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 28, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today, with an overall bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, a decline in downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory. The PP market is also expected to fluctuate, with a bearish fundamental outlook as well [4][6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China - US leaders' meeting, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, leading to a drop in oil prices. The demand for agricultural films has declined, and other film types are mainly driven by rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6770 (-40), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 71, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 50.1 million tons (-5.3), indicating a bearish signal [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, indicating a bullish signal [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate, with an oversupply in fundamentals, a decline in downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [4] - Likely Influencing Factors: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing of China - US relations. Bearish factors include weaker - than - expected demand and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the PMI declined in October, and the oil market situation changed after the China - US meeting. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6350 (-0), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 55, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.9%, indicating a bullish signal [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 54.6 million tons (-4.8), considered neutral [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, indicating a bearish signal [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate, with an oversupply in fundamentals, average downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [6] - Likely Influencing Factors: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors include oil price rebound and China - US relations easing, while bearish factors include weak demand and new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 6770 (-40), the price of the 01 contract is 6699 (-8), the basis is 71 (-32), the import price in US dollars is 770 (0), the import - converted price is 6712 (-3), and the import spread is 58 (-37). The PE comprehensive factory inventory is 50.1 million tons (-5.3), and the social inventory is 47.1 million tons (-15) [8] - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6350 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6295 (30), the basis is 55 (-30), the import price in US dollars is 755 (0), the import - converted price is 6584 (-3), and the import spread is - 234 (3). The PP comprehensive factory inventory is 54.6 million tons (-4.8), and the social inventory is 30.8 million tons (-13) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2023, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 4319.5 million tons [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, with a gradual decrease in import dependence. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 4906 million tons [15]