永安期货集运早报-20251128

Group 1: Report on Futures Market Data - EC2512 futures price was 1612.9, down 0.59%, with a trading volume of 1493 and an open interest of 5232, a decrease of 302 [2][11] - EC2602 futures price was 1387.7, up 0.02%, with a trading volume of 24978 and an open interest of 42968, a decrease of 1089 [2][11] - EC2604 futures price was 1054.6, down 1.64%, with a trading volume of 5766 and an open interest of 18701, an increase of 703 [2][11] - The difference between EC2512 - 2504 was 558.3, compared to 550.2 the previous day and 523.6 two days ago [2][11] - The SCFIS (European Line) index on November 24, 2025, was 1639.37 dollars/TEU, up 20.75% from the previous period [2][11] - The CCFI on November 21, 2025, was 1432.96, up 2.09% from the previous period [2][11] - The NCFI on November 21, 2025, was 951.65, down 2.83% from the previous period [2][11] Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - On Wednesday, the market dropped significantly due to near - term price cuts and resumption of shipping expectations [3][12] - The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, following the spot price, with P1 around 1550 - 1600 points [3][12] - P2 and P3 correspond to the second half of December cabin space, expecting a stable - to - rising trend [3][12] - The EC2602 contract is undervalued, and the key to going long is to wait for the signal of cargo volume overflow [3][12] - There is no overly pessimistic expectation because this year's Chinese New Year is late, pre - holiday shipments have not fully started, and there is no cargo overflow [3][12] - December price cuts are beneficial for January price increases, and freight rate peaks usually occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Chinese New Year [3][12] - The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3][12] Group 3: Recent Spot Market Conditions in European Lines - In Week 49, the offline quotes of GEMINI and PA alliances were between 2300 - 2500 dollars, and OA was between 2300 - 2600 dollars, with an average of about 2400 dollars (equivalent to about 1650 points on the futures market) [4][13] - In Week 50, Maersk opened cabins at 2200 dollars, PA dropped to 1900 - 2200 dollars, and OA remained at 2400 - 2500 dollars [4][13] - On Thursday, YML cut prices to 1900 dollars, ONE to 2200 dollars, and the central price might be between 2200 - 2300 dollars (1550 - 1600 points) [4][13]