大越期货沥青期货早报-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure remains high on the supply - side, and the recovery is weak on the demand - side [12] - The high - priced asphalt has insufficient demand, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11] - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support [10] - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating between 2981 - 3033 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: In November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment was 245,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.28%. The sample enterprises' output was 441,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 958,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.59%. Refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8] - Demand - side: The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt was 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the开工率 of construction asphalt was 6%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工率 of modified asphalt was 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 34%, flat month - on - month, higher than the historical average; the开工率 of waterproofing membranes was 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8] - Cost - side: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 1,086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [8] - Basis: On November 27, the spot price in Shandong was 3,010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 3 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8] - Inventory: Social inventory was 794,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; factory inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and factory inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to accumulate [8] - Market Chart: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8] - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [8] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's asphalt market, including the prices, changes, and trading volumes of different contracts, as well as inventory, production, and demand indicators [15] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis Trend: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025 [18][20] - Spread Analysis: - Main Contract Spread: Displays the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [23] - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: Presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [26] - Crude Oil Crack Spread: Shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 - 2025 [29][30] - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: Displays the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: Displays the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [39] - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: Shows the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [43] - Supply - side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: Displays the historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [46] - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: Shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 - 2025 [48] - Production Volume: Displays the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [51] - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: Shows the historical price trends of Marey crude oil and the monthly production volumes of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [56] - Refinery Asphalt Production: Displays the historical production volumes of refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [58] - Capacity Utilization Rate: Displays the historical weekly capacity utilization rates of asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [61] - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: Shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [64] - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: Displays the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [67][68] - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: Shows the historical social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [71] - Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio: Displays the historical factory inventory - inventory ratios of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [74] - Import and Export Situation: - Export and Import Trends: Displays the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [77] - South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: Shows the historical import spread trends of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [80] - Demand - side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: Displays the historical production volumes of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [83] - Apparent Consumption: Shows the historical apparent consumption volumes of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [86] - Downstream Demand: - Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment: Displays the historical highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment trends from 2020 - 2025 [89] - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year: Shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year completion of infrastructure investment from 2019 - 2025 [90] - Downstream Machinery Demand: Displays the historical sales volumes of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the sales volumes of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2019 - 2025 [93][95] - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: Displays the historical capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [98] - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use: Shows the historical capacity utilization rates of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [100] - Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation: Displays the historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 - 2025 [102][104] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to November 2025, including downstream demand, inventory, export, import, and production data [107]