原木期货日报-20251128

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The 01 contract is weak in the real - world scenario with low willingness to take delivery, and the futures price is expected to be weak. The supply arrival volume is rising, port inventory is higher than in the past two years. Although the outbound volume remains resilient, it will face pressure later. The current futures price is relatively low, and cost support limits the downside space [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 27, the prices of some futures contracts changed slightly: the price of log 2603 decreased by 1.5 to 774.5 with a decline of - 0.19%, and the price of log 2605 decreased by 1.0 to 790.0 with a decline of - 0.13%. The price of log 2601 remained unchanged at 765.0. Spot prices of various pine and spruce in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 27 compared to November 26 [2] - The import cost calculation shows that on November 27, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.074, and the import theoretical cost was 806.64 yuan, with little change compared to the previous day [2] Supply - In terms of monthly supply, from September 30 to October 31, the port freight volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 24.7 to 201.3 (ten thousand/cubic meters), a rise of 13.99%, and the number of departing ships increased by 8 to 54, a rise of 17.39% [2] Inventory - Weekly inventory data shows that as of November 21, the inventory in Tianyuan increased by 8.0 to 303.00 with a growth rate of 2.71%. In Shandong, it increased by 11.1 to 195.4 (ten thousand/cubic meters), and in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.5 to 83.66 with a decline of - 0.57% [2][3] Demand - As of November 21, the daily average outbound volume in China decreased by 0.12 to 6.44 (ten thousand/cubic meters), a decline of - 2%. In Shandong, it decreased by 0.08 to 3.59, and in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.08 to 2.36, with a decline of - 3% [2][3] Forecast of Arrival - From November 24 - 30, 2025, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China is 6, a decrease of 7 compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 54%; the total arrival volume is about 21.7 (ten thousand/cubic meters), a decrease of 20.1 (ten thousand/cubic meters) compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 48% [3]