大越期货豆粕早报-20251128

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The US soybean market is closed for Thanksgiving, and the market focuses on China's soybean purchases. Domestic soybean meal is rising, but the demand improvement and spot price discount limit the rebound. It is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - The soybean A2601 will fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The domestic soybean market is affected by the US soybean trend, and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports the price, but the domestic soybean production increase restricts the upward movement [11]. - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, there are uncertainties in China's purchase quantity and US soybean weather. The domestic soybean meal market will return to range - bound fluctuations due to various factors such as the decline of soybean arrivals in November, the decrease in hog farming profits, and the high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - No relevant detailed content found 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean meal market has returned to range - bound fluctuations due to factors like the decline in imported soybean arrivals in November, the decrease in hog farming profits, and high inventory in domestic oil mills [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal Longs: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills has no pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - Soybean Meal Shorts: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November remains high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - Soybean Longs: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - Soybean Shorts: Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and China is increasing its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production restricts the price increase [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The basis of soybean meal in East China is - 55, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 99.29 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.89% and a year - on - year increase of 27.52% [9]. - Soybeans: The basis of domestic soybeans is - 6, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 747.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87% and a year - on - year increase of 40.92% [11]. - The report also provides the supply - demand balance sheets of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 - 2024, including data on harvest area, production, inventory, etc. [33][34] 5. Position Data - The main short positions in both soybean meal and soybeans have increased, and funds have flowed out [9][11] 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Price and Transaction Data - The report provides the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from November 19 - 27, 2025, as well as the price differences between them [17]. - It also shows the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from November 20 - 27, 2025 [19]. - The report presents the warehouse receipt statistics of soybeans and soybean meal from November 18 - 27, 2025 [21]. 7. Global Soybean Production Progress - The report provides the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25), the US (2024, 2025), and Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26) [35][36][40] 8. USDA Supply - Demand Report - The report shows the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from April - November 2025, including data on planting area, yield, production, and ending inventory [46] 9. Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [47]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from its high in November but increased overall year - on - year [49]. - The inventory of soybeans in oil mills remains high, while the inventory of soybean meal has decreased from its high [50]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have increased from a low level, and the备货 demand has recovered [52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit has fluctuated slightly [56]. - The hog inventory has been rising, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. The hog price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large hogs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of hogs has increased slightly. The domestic hog farming profit has decreased slightly [58][60][64]