原油成品油早报-20251128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices closed lower. Significant progress has been made in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Zelensky and Trump will discuss a peace plan next week, and Russia is open to it, but no substantial discussions have taken place between Russia and the US. The risk premium of gasoline and diesel cracks in Europe and the US has rapidly declined, and the monthly spread of crude oil has fallen, with a weekly rebound. Global onshore inventories have increased this week, while the total onshore and offshore inventories have slightly decreased, reaching a new high since 2020. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories have decreased, while gasoline and diesel inventories have increased. The number of US drilling rigs and fracturing operations has increased, and the refinery operating rates in Europe and the US have risen. Recently, there is still room for downward adjustment of US gasoline and European diesel prices. With a supply-demand surplus, the strategy of shorting crude oil at high levels is maintained. The Brent price in the fourth quarter is expected to be between $55 and $60 per barrel. Short-term attention should be paid to the US draft of the Russia-Ukraine conflict solution [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily News - The UK has postponed sanctions on Lukoil until February next year. The UK government announced the extension of the grace period for sanctions on Lukoil International Limited and its subsidiaries until February 26 next year, which was originally scheduled to take effect at midnight on November 28 [3]. - OPEC+ is expected to maintain production levels and finalize a production capacity assessment mechanism at the Sunday meeting. Two OPEC+ representatives and a source familiar with the OPEC+ negotiations said that OPEC+ may keep the oil production level unchanged at the Sunday meeting and reach an agreement on the mechanism for assessing the maximum production capacity of member countries. It is expected that eight OPEC+ countries that gradually increased production in 2025 will maintain the policy of suspending production increases in the first quarter of 2026. The OPEC+ member countries are expected to reach an agreement on the production capacity mechanism at a separate meeting on Sunday [4]. - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has exported over 65.5 million barrels of crude oil through its system from the beginning of the year to November 21 [4]. - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) believes that if there is a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, Brent crude oil prices may quickly fall to $60 per barrel. Market expectations of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia may pave the way for the West to lift sanctions on Russian supplies. CBA analyst Vivek Dhar said that the sanctions that took effect on November 21 have affected Russia's oil and refined oil exports. After an agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia, Brent crude oil prices should fall to $60 per barrel relatively quickly, and the ceasefire will also restore the normal operation of Russian refineries [4]. b. Inventory - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 21 decreased by 1.859 million barrels, compared with a previous value of 4.448 million barrels. API gasoline inventory increased by 0.539 million barrels, compared with a previous value of 1.546 million barrels. API refined oil inventory increased by 0.753 million barrels, compared with a previous value of 0.577 million barrels [4]. - According to the EIA report, US crude oil exports in the week ending November 21 decreased by 0.56 million barrels per day to 3.598 million barrels per day. US domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.02 million barrels to 13.814 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 2.774 million barrels to 427 million barrels, an increase of 0.65%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.381 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.05% compared with the same period last year. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 0.498 million barrels to 411.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%. US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.436 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.486 million barrels per day compared with the previous week [4]. - From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventory was 10.2331 million tons, a decrease of 1.75%, and diesel inventory was 12.2708 million tons, a decrease of 4.25% compared with the previous period. The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries rebounded, while the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated [4]. - As of the week ending November 24, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 0.197 million barrels. The light distillate inventory decreased by 0.934 million barrels to 6.291 million barrels, the medium distillate inventory increased by 0.205 million barrels to 3.393 million barrels, and the heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 0.926 million barrels to 11.165 million barrels [4].