甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views Methanol - The current situation remains poor, with Iranian plant shutdowns slower than expected. November is expected to see high imports, and it is difficult to resolve the contradictions in the 01 contract. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland area. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it has no impact on profits. [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous period. Recently, the domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and the US quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants. [6] PP (Polypropylene) - The inventory of the two major oil companies (upstream) and the middle - stream is decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral, and markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The production scheduling of drawn products is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level. [6] PVC - The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally declining, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recently, near - term export orders have declined slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the accumulation of static inventory contradictions is slow, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates. [6] 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 801 | 2003 | 1985 | 2350 | 2350 | 2340 | 2585 | 234 | 317 | - 25 | - 20 | - | | 2025/11/24 | 801 | 2053 | 2028 | 2360 | 2372 | 2340 | 2588 | 237 | 317 | 13 | - 20 | - | | 2025/11/25 | 801 | 2057 | 2030 | 2378 | 2412 | 2385 | 2588 | 240 | 317 | - 16 | - 15 | - | | 2025/11/26 | 801 | 2088 | 2048 | 2408 | 2415 | 2390 | 2590 | 243 | 317 | - 16 | - 5 | - | | 2025/11/27 | 801 | 2103 | 2073 | 2410 | 2410 | 2390 | 2590 | - | - | - | - 11 | - | |日度变化|0|15|25|2| - 5|0|0| - | - | - | - 6| - | [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 730 | 6750 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 764 | 14 | 6770 | - 20 | 69 | 11835 | | 2025/11/24 | 730 | 6760 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 764 | 17 | 6793 | - 20 | - | 11721 | | 2025/11/25 | 730 | 6740 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 785 | 35 | 6762 | - 50 | - | 11701 | | 2025/11/26 | 730 | 6700 | 6975 | 8850 | 7050 | 795 | - | 85 | 6707 | - 30 | - | 11701 | | 2025/11/27 | - | - | 6925 | 8800 | 7000 | - | - | - | 6699 | - 20 | - | 11701 | |日度变化| - | - | - 50 | - 50 | - 50 | - | - | - | - 8 | 10 | - | 0 | [6] PP (Polypropylene) | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 5900 | 695 | 6305 | 6265 | 6180 | 6766 | 765 | 805 | - 5 | 6357 | - 80 | 69 | 15733 | | 2025/11/24 | 5900 | 695 | 6285 | 6255 | 6160 | 6754 | 765 | 805 | - 4 | 6372 | - 80 | - | 15733 | | 2025/11/25 | 5920 | 695 | 6270 | 6248 | 6160 | 6754 | 765 | 805 | - 5 | 6317 | - 100 | - | 15668 | | 2025/11/26 | 6050 | 695 | 6250 | 6213 | 6150 | 6744 | - | - | - | 6265 | - 70 | - | 15518 | | 2025/11/27 | 6050 | - | 6205 | 6210 | 6150 | 6728 | - | - | - | 6295 | - 70 | - | 15518 | |日度变化|0| - | - 45 | - 3 | 0 | - 16 | - | - | - | 30 | 0 | - | 0 | [6] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价（CFR中国）|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 2400 | 792 | 4490 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 426 | - | - | - 90 | | 2025/11/24 | 2450 | 777 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 423 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/25 | 2450 | 777 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 415 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/26 | 2450 | 777 | 4520 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | - | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/27 | 2450 | 767 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | - | - | - | - | - 70 | |日度变化|0| - 10 | 10 | - | - | 0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | [6]