Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View This week, the molten iron production decreased seasonally while the apparent demand was decent, reaching 888 million tons. Under the background of production cuts and inventory reduction, the contradictions in the steel market were not significant. The decline in molten iron production suppressed the price of iron ore. Although the supply - demand contradictions in the steel market were not prominent, iron ore and coking coal fluctuated weakly. It is expected that steel prices will experience a central decline within a range, with rebar referring to the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coil referring to the 3250 - 3400 range. The unilateral driving force is not obvious. Attention can be paid to the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage operation of the January contract, as well as the convergence arbitrage of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread of the January contract [1]. Summary by Directory - Steel Prices and Spreads: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and contracts mostly declined. For example, the rebar spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract price decreased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Profit: The billet price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of most steel products decreased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 12 yuan/ton [1]. - Production: The daily average molten iron production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons, a decline of 0.9%, while the electric - furnace rebar production increased by 2.6 tons, an increase of 9.5% [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decline of 2.3%. The rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decline of 4.0% [1]. - Transaction and Demand: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 9.3, a decline of 0.5%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.2 tons to 888.0 tons, a decline of 0.7% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Yesterday, the iron ore futures fluctuated. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin continued to decline, the molten iron volume decreased, and the steel mill restocking demand increased. The inventory of ports increased, the port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's equity iron ore inventory decreased. Looking forward, the molten iron volume decreased this week, and the steel mill inventory contradiction improved significantly. With the current steel mill profit margin and inventory accumulation level, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. Without new macro - driving factors, it is expected that iron ore will be difficult to have an independent unilateral market. In the short term, it will operate weakly under the condition of futures discount repair and the latest decline in molten iron [5]. Summary by Directory - Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of some iron ore varieties increased slightly, such as the PB powder's spot price in Rizhao Port increased by 1 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.0 to 26.5, an increase of 12.8% [5]. - Supply: The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 548.2 tons to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, a decline of 6.8% [5]. - Demand: The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 1.7 tons to 331.6 tons, an increase of 0.5% [5]. - Inventory Changes: The 45 - port inventory increased by 108.6 tons to 15210.12 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decline of 0.7% [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Yesterday, the coke futures fluctuated and declined, and the night - session continued to be weak. The port trade quotation declined, and after the fourth - round price increase of mainstream coke enterprises was fully implemented, there was an expectation of price reduction. The coking coal futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend, and the spot price weakened, showing a pattern of futures - spot resonance decline. For coke, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market with a reference range of 1500 - 1650 and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage. For coking coal, the market supply has become looser, and it is also recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market with a reference range of 1000 - 1120 and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage [8]. Summary by Directory - Coke - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of coke futures and some spot varieties decreased. For example, the coke 01 contract price decreased by 12 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.7%. The coking profit increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 24 yuan/ton [8]. - Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of coking coal futures and some spot varieties also decreased. The coking coal 01 contract price decreased by 14 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.2%. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 587 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%. Some coal mines in Shanxi have stopped production, and the imported coking coal from Mongolia has increased significantly in customs clearance since November [8]. - Demand: The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7% [8]. - Inventory Changes: The total coke inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coking coal inventory in some sectors increased, while in some sectors decreased. For example, the fine - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 10.4 tons to 98.0 tons, an increase of 11.9% [8]. - Supply - Demand Gap: The coke supply - demand gap calculation result increased by 1.5 tons to - 43 tons, an increase of 34.2% [8].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20251128
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-28 05:49