广发期货原木期货日报-20251128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The 01 contract is weak in the real - world scenario, with low willingness to take delivery. The futures market is expected to trend weakly. The spot price decreased last week, and the supply - side arrival volume continued to rise, with port inventory higher than the past two years. Although the outbound volume remains resilient, it will face pressure later. The current futures price is relatively low, and cost support limits the downside space [3]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Price: On November 27, the price of log2601 was 765.0, unchanged from the previous day; log2603 was 774.5, down 1.5 (-0.19%) from the previous day; log2605 was 790.0, down 1.0 (-0.13%) from the previous day. The 01 - 03 spread was -9.5, up 1.5; the 01 - 05 spread was -25.0, up 1.0; the 03 contract basis was -24.5, up 1.5; the 01 contract basis was -15.0, unchanged [2]. - Spot Price: The prices of various specifications of radiation pine and spruce in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on November 27 compared with the previous day. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine and 11.8 - meter spruce in the outer market also remained unchanged from November 21 to November 28 [2]. - Import Cost: On November 27, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.074, down 0.003 from the previous day; the import theoretical cost was 806.64 yuan, down 0.39 yuan from the previous day [2]. Supply - Monthly Supply: From September 30 to October 31, the port freight volume from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea increased by 24.7 (13.99%) to 201.3 million cubic meters, and the number of departing ships increased by 8.0 (17.39%) to 54.0 [2]. - Inventory: As of November 21, the inventory in Tianyuan increased by 8.0 (2.71%) to 303.00; in Shandong, it increased by 11.1 (5.68%) to 206.50; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.5 (-0.57%) to 83.18. The total inventory in major ports increased compared with the previous week [2][3]. Demand - As of November 21, the daily average outbound volume in China decreased by 0.12 (-2%) to 6.44 million cubic meters; in Shandong, it decreased by 0.08 (-2%) to 3.59; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.08 (-3%) to 2.36 [2][3]. Forecast of Arrival Ships - From November 24 - 30, 2025, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 6, a decrease of 7 (54%) from the previous week, and the total arrival volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, a decrease of 20.1 million cubic meters (48%) from the previous week [3].