碳酸锂市场周报：供需双增预期向好，锂价或将有所支撑-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, with inventory continuing to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades with a light position at low prices and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a rise of +5.93% and an amplitude of 10.85%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 96,420 yuan/ton [6]. - Macroeconomic Policy: Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to promote consumption, aiming to optimize the consumer goods supply structure by 2027 [6]. - Fundamentals: In the raw material segment, lithium prices are relatively good, driving up the price of lithium ore. Mines are more willing to sell, and smelters are more active in purchasing. The supply of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to increase, while the demand side is also supported by the peak consumption season of downstream battery materials, the boost in pre - holiday car - buying enthusiasm due to the subsidy policy change for new energy vehicles next year, and the significant increase in the energy storage industry [6]. - Trading Advice: Conduct short - term long trades with a light position at low prices and control risks [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 96,420 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5,400 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,860 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,660 yuan/ton [9]. - Spot Price: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,750 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,450 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 2,670 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 3,950 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was $1,220/ton, a weekly increase of $10/ton [20]. - Lithium Mica and Phosphorus - Lithium - Aluminum Stone: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 3,894 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The average price of phosphorus - lithium - aluminum stone was 10,525 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 425 yuan/ton [25]. 4. Industry Supply - Imports and Exports: As of October 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,880.69 tons, a 21.86% increase from September and a 2.95% year - on - year increase. The monthly export volume was 245.912 tons, a 63.06% increase from September and a 17.93% year - on - year decrease [30]. - Production: As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 51,530 tons, a 9.31% increase from September and a 62.15% year - on - year increase. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a 5% decrease from the previous month and a 32% year - on - year decrease [30]. 5. Downstream Demand - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium and Electrolyte: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 180,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5,000 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 219,900 tons, a 6.98% increase from September and a 41.32% year - on - year increase [33]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 39,100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 266,880 tons, an 8.36% increase from September and a 45.92% year - on - year increase. The monthly operating rate was 64% [38]. - Ternary Materials: As of October 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 62,020 tons, a 1.77% decrease from September and a 15.95% year - on - year increase. The monthly operating rate was 52%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials remained stable [41]. - Lithium Manganate: As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,300 tons, a 3.83% increase from September and a 3.65% year - on - year decrease. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 36,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton [46]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 343,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,790 tons, a 4.71% increase from September and a 116.01% year - on - year increase [49]. - New Energy Vehicles: As of October 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 46.75%. The monthly production was 1,772,000 vehicles, a 9.59% increase from the previous month, and the monthly sales were 1,715,000 vehicles, a 6.92% increase from the previous month. The cumulative export volume was 2.014 million vehicles, a 90.36% year - on - year increase [52][56]. 6. Options Market - Based on the option parity theory and the performance of at - the - money contracts, combined with the fundamental situation, it is recommended to construct a short straddle option to short volatility. The premium of the synthetic underlying is - 0.01, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity [61].