螺纹钢市场周报：多空博弈，螺纹期价震荡偏强-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand of rebar are weak, but the positive macro - expectations support steel prices. The RB2601 contract may fluctuate and strengthen, and it is advisable to consider buying call options [7][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of November 28, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3110 yuan/ton (+53 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3290 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton) [5]. - Rebar production decreased to 206.08 million tons (-1.88 million tons), a year - on - year decrease of 21.8 million tons [5]. - Apparent demand declined to 227.94 million tons (-2.85 million tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.59 million tons [5]. - Factory and social inventories continued to decline. The total rebar inventory was 531.48 million tons (-21.86 million tons), a year - on - year increase of 83.84 million tons [5]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week and 16.89 percentage points from the same period last year [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: Overseas, the market's expectation for the December meeting fluctuates between "interest rate cut" and "maintaining the status quo", and the probability of an interest rate cut has risen to about 80%. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission will govern enterprises' disorderly price competition [7]. - Supply - demand aspect: Rebar weekly production decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 45.18% and an EAF steel开工率 of 69.13%. Downstream demand was average, with a decline in apparent demand but a continued decrease in inventory [7]. - Cost aspect: Although the fundamentals of iron ore are generally in a state of loose supply, the macro - expectations are positive, and the ore price remains strong. Coking coal and coke continue to weaken [7]. - Technical aspect: The RB2601 contract fluctuated and strengthened. The daily K - line broke through the MA60 moving average pressure upwards, and the lower moving averages were relatively dense with strong support [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the futures price fluctuated and strengthened. The RB2601 contract was stronger than the RB2605 contract. On the 28th, the price difference was - 7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 34 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On November 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's rebar warehouse receipts were 59519 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5301 tons. The net short position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract was 54221 lots, a decrease of 28612 lots from the previous week [20]. 3.2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On November 28, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade rebar 20mmHRB400 was 3290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of rebar was weaker than the futures price. On the 28th, the basis was 180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Upstream Market 3.3.1 Furnace Charge Prices - On November 28, the spot price of 61% Australian Macfarlane ore at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [30]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore Arrivals and Inventories - From November 17 - 23, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2939.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 569.6 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2817.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 548.2 million tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1438.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 397.0 million tons [35]. - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15901.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 166.37 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 344.06 million tons, an increase of 0.67 million tons [35]. 3.3.3 Coking Plant Data - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.02% (+0.92%), coke daily output was 50.40 (+0.65), coke inventory was 45.21 (+1.77), total coking coal inventory was 860.93 (-28.29), and the available days of coking coal were 12.8 days (-0.6 days) [39]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - Crude Steel Production: In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [43]. - Rebar Production: On November 27, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises was 206.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.88 million tons from the previous week and 21.8 million tons from the same period last year [45]. - EAF Steel: The average starting rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 69.13%, unchanged from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 0.79 percentage points [48]. - Rebar Inventory: On November 27, the in - factory inventory of rebar in 137 building material production enterprises was 146.73 million tons, a decrease of 6.59 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.48 million tons from the same period last year. The social inventory of rebar in 35 major cities was 384.75 million tons, a decrease of 15.27 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 82.36 million tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 531.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.86 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 83.84 million tons [51]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - Real Estate: From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7356.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The housing construction area was 6529.39 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%; the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [54]. - Infrastructure: From January to October 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 13.8%, water transportation investment increased by 9.4%, and railway transportation investment increased by 3.0% [54]. 3.5 Options Market - Considering the decline in rebar production, the decrease in downstream demand, and the positive macro - expectations supporting steel prices, it is advisable to consider buying call options [57].