热轧卷板市场周报：钢市多空交织，热卷期价区间整理-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coils may fluctuate strongly. The Fed's expected rate cut in December and China's governance of disorderly corporate price competition on the macro - front, along with increased hot - rolled coil production, slightly reduced but resilient terminal demand, and positive macro expectations, support steel prices. Attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of November 28, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton (+32), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton (+0). - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 319.01 million tons (+3), a year - on - year increase of 12.92 million tons. - Apparent demand declined. The current period's apparent demand was 320.22 million tons (-4.2), a year - on - year increase of 3.13 million tons. - Factory inventory remained flat, and social inventory decreased. The total inventory was 400.9 million tons (-1.21), a year - on - year increase of 95.18 million tons. - The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 16.89 percentage points from last year [5]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: Overseas, market expectations for the December meeting fluctuate between "rate cut" and "maintain unchanged". After Williams and Waller supported a rate cut, the market probability of a rate cut has risen to about 80%. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on cost determination for disorderly price competition. - Supply - demand aspect: The weekly production of hot - rolled coils continued to increase, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 81.49%, higher than the same period last year. Terminal demand slightly declined, but the apparent demand remained at 3.2 million tons, higher than the same period last year, and inventory decreased. - Cost aspect: Although the fundamentals of iron ore are generally in a state of loose supply, due to positive macro expectations, ore prices remain strong. Coking coal and coke continue to weaken. - Technical aspect: The HC2601 contract fluctuated strongly, with the daily K - line above multiple moving averages and breaking through the 3300 mark. The MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are running near the 0 axis, and the red column is stable [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures Price - This week, the HC2601 contract was range - bound. The price of the HC2601 contract was stronger than that of the HC2605 contract. On the 28th, the price difference was 14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2. Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On November 28, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 141,932 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,156 tons. - On November 28, the net position of the top 20 in the hot - rolled coil futures contract was a net short position of 63,178 contracts, an increase of 3,385 contracts from the previous week [19]. 3.2.3. Spot Price - On November 28, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3318 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton. - This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price. On the 28th, the basis was 18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 32 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3. Upstream Market Conditions 3.3.1. Furnace Charge Prices - On November 28, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. - On November 28, the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1760 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [31]. 3.3.2. Ore Arrival and Shipment - From November 17 to 23, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 32.784 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38 billion tons. The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 26.374 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.713 billion tons. - From November 17 to 23, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 29.395 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.696 billion tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 28.171 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.482 billion tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.383 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.97 billion tons [37]. 3.3.3. Iron Ore Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 159.0122 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.6637 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4406 million tons, an increase of 0.0067 million tons. - On November 27, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 1.1476 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0134 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.2478 million tons [41]. 3.3.4. Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.02%, an increase of 0.92%. The daily coke output was 504,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons. The coke inventory was 452,100 tons, an increase of 177,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 8.6093 million tons, a decrease of 0.2829 million tons. The available days of coking coal were 12.8 days, a decrease of 0.6 days [45]. 3.4. Industry Conditions 3.4.1. Supply - side: Steel Export and Production - In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, China's crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. - In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.782 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%; imports were 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%; the cumulative imports were 5.041 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9% [48]. 3.4.2. Supply - side: Hot - Rolled Coil Production - On November 28, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.18 percentage points. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.016 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0081 million tons. - On November 27, the weekly production of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 3.1901 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last week and an increase of 0.1295 million tons from the same period last year [52]. 3.4.3. Supply - side: Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - On November 27, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 780,200 tons, an increase of 0 tons from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 3,700 tons. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 3.2288 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.9555 million tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.009 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.9518 million tons [57]. 3.5. Downstream Conditions 3.5.1. Automobile Industry - From January to October 2025, automobile production and sales were 24.466 million and 24.624 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and 2.7% respectively. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.779 million and 9.75 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33% and 33.9% respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 39.6% of the total sales of new vehicles [60]. 3.5.2. Home Appliance Industry - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 230.344 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3%. The production of household refrigerators was 89.959 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The production of household washing machines was 101.078 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [60].