玉米类市场周报：现货市场继续走强，提振期价同步收高-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures fluctuated and rose this week. The international corn market price is under pressure, but the domestic corn market is supported by factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight transportation capacity, increased processing consumption, and strong procurement by enterprises. The corn futures price is generally strong and volatile, and investors should be cautious about chasing up [6]. - Corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher. Although the supply - side pressure increases due to sufficient raw material supply and rising industry operating rates, the downstream demand is good, inventory has decreased, and the starch futures price has risen in sync with the corn market, with caution advised for chasing up [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights 3.1.1. Corn - Market Review: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed at 2,244 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - Market Outlook: International supply pressure is high, while in the domestic market, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight transportation, and increased consumption support the price. The futures price is strong and volatile, and cautious chasing is recommended [6]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - Market Review: The main 2601 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2,566 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - Market Outlook: Supply - side pressure increases, but downstream demand is good, inventory has decreased, and the futures price has risen in sync with the corn market, with caution advised for chasing up [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Price Trends and Position Changes - Corn futures' January contract oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 959,620 hands, an increase of 10,180 hands from last week. Corn starch futures' January contract also oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 238,140 hands, an increase of 1,212 hands from last week [14]. 3.2.2. Net Positions of the Top Twenty - The net position of the top twenty in corn futures this week was - 202,716, compared with - 108,473 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions. The net position of the top twenty in starch futures was - 33,782, compared with - 43,094 last week, showing a slight decrease in net short positions [20]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 60,215, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 0 [24]. 3.2.4. Spot Prices and Basis Trends - As of November 27, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,325.29 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active January contract of corn and the spot average price was + 81 yuan/ton [32]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,650 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton, with a slight increase this week. The basis between the January contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 84 yuan/ton [36]. 3.2.5. Inter - month Spread Changes - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was + 5 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of starch was - 9 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [42]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread Changes - The spread between the January contracts of starch and corn was 322 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with last week [51]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread Changes - As of November 27, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,506.44 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,325.29 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 181.15 yuan/ton. In the 48th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 601 yuan/ton, an increase of 147 yuan/ton compared with last week [56]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - Supply Side: - As of November 21, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 28.4 tons, an increase of 1.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 31.5 tons, a decrease of 4.00 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 115.6 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 74.4 tons, an increase of 34.40 tons week - on - week [46]. - As of November 27, the overall progress of domestic corn sales was 30%, a 3% increase from November 20, and a 3% increase compared with the same period last year [58]. - In October 2025, China's corn import volume was 35.90 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.06% and a month - on - month increase of 30.25 tons [62]. - As of November 27, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 27.83 days, an increase of 1.60 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.10%, but a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [66]. - Demand Side: - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.80 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 2.9%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.2% [70]. - As of November 21, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 135.9 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 234.63 yuan/head [74]. - As of November 27, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 3 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 500 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 579 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 252 yuan/ton [79]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - Supply Side: - As of November 26, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 269.8 tons, a decrease of 1.06% [84]. - From November 20 to November 26, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 62.46 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 32.34 tons, an increase of 0.84 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 61.38%, an increase of 1.59% from last week. As of November 26, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 106.9 tons, a decrease of 4.00 tons from last week, a weekly decrease of 3.61%, a monthly decrease of 5.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.04% [88]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of November 28, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn was 11.05%, a rebound of 2.63% from 8.42% last week. The implied volatility rebounded significantly this week and was at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].