Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Alumina: The supply of bauxite is gradually becoming sufficient. The supply of the alumina industry remains high, but smelters may cut production passively due to profit issues, leading to a gradual reduction in domestic alumina supply. The demand for electrolytic aluminum is stable with some minor declines. Overall, the alumina market may see a slight decrease in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to take short - term long positions in the alumina main contract at low prices, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The supply of alumina raw materials is abundant, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is good. However, winter environmental protection restrictions and seasonal demand decline may lead to a slight decrease in domestic electrolytic aluminum production. The downstream is entering the consumption off - season, but the demand still shows some resilience due to year - end rush in the photovoltaic and automotive industries. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum market may see a slight decline in both supply and demand, and industrial inventory may accumulate. It is recommended to trade the Shanghai aluminum main contract in a range - bound manner with light positions, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - Cast Aluminum: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which restricts production capacity, leading to a decrease in domestic cast aluminum supply. The industry is in a seasonal downturn, but the year - end sales rush in the automotive industry provides some support for demand. Overall, the cast aluminum market may see a decrease in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade the cast aluminum main contract in a range - bound manner with light positions, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded with a weekly increase of 1.27%, closing at 21,610 yuan/ton. Alumina fluctuated at a low level with a weekly decrease of 0.22%, closing at 2,707 yuan/ton. The main contract of cast aluminum rebounded slightly with a weekly increase of 1.00%, closing at 20,800 yuan/ton [4][6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price Movements: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 21,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton (1.41%) from November 21. The closing price of LME aluminum on November 27, 2025, was 2,831.5 dollars/ton, up 25 dollars/ton (0.89%) from November 21. The alumina futures price was 2,658 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (1.77%) from November 21. The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract was 20,800 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton (1%) from November 21. The A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,430 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.33%) from November 21, with a spot discount of 60 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [9][13][29]. - Ratio and Spread: As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.58, down 0.26 from November 21. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 815 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from November 21. The copper - aluminum futures spread was 65,820 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton from November 21 [10][19]. - Inventory and Position: As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum open interest was 596,294 lots, down 15,917 lots (2.6%) from November 21. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 6,558 lots from November 21 [14]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Inventory: As of November 27, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 541,050 tons, down 3,025 tons (0.56%) from November 20. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory on November 21 was 123,716 tons, up 8,817 tons (7.67%) from the previous week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory on November 27 was 543,000 tons, down 23,000 tons (4.06%) from November 20. As of November 28, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 66,935 tons, down 2,348 tons (3.39%) from November 21. The LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts on November 27 totaled 485,575 tons, up 775 tons (0.16%) from November 20 [32]. - Raw Material Imports and Inventory: The import volume of bauxite in October 2025 was 13.7661 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.31%. From January to October, the cumulative import of bauxite was 170.9596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.05%. The inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 26.39 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons [35]. - Scrap Aluminum: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong remained unchanged at 16,550 yuan/ton. In October 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and debris was 158,360.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%, and the export volume was 32.46 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [41]. - Alumina Production and Trade: In October 2025, the alumina production was 7.865 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. From January to October, the cumulative alumina production was 76.344 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. In October, the alumina import volume was 189,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 215.64% and a year - on - year increase of 2927.91%, and the export volume was 180,000 tons [44]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Production and Trade: In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 248,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.24%. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum import was 2.2047 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.88%. In October, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 24,600 tons. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum export was 206,000 tons. In 2025 from January to August, the global aluminum market had a supply deficit of 105,400 tons. In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 37.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [47][51]. - Aluminum Products: In October 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. From January to October, the cumulative aluminum product production was 55.243 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. In October, the aluminum product import volume was 350,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, and the export volume was 500,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8% [55]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: In October 2025, the monthly installed capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. The recycled aluminum alloy production was 608,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.35 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.83% [58]. - Aluminum Alloy: In October 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.682 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. From January to October, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 15.76 million tons. In October, the aluminum alloy import volume was 76,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.77%, and the export volume was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.65%. From January to October, the aluminum alloy import volume was 841,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.24%, and the export volume was 228,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.81% [61]. - Related Industries: In October 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from the previous month and up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.87%, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.31%. From January to October 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3.322 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.81%, and the production volume was 3.359 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.1% [64][67]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and the volatility may converge in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [71].
铝类市场周报：供给收敛需求韧性，铝类或将震荡运行-20251128
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-28 10:03