Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend. Macroscopically, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, and the country is taking measures to regulate price competition. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has decreased, the arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has stopped falling and rebounded. The blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and molten iron output of steel mills have declined slightly. Technically, the iron ore I2601 contract has shifted upward, and the daily K - line is above multiple moving averages. Although the fundamentals of iron ore are generally in a state of loose supply, the macro - expectations are positive, and the spot price is firm [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary 1.1 Price - As of the close on November 28, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 794 (+8.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was 843 (-1) yuan/dry ton [5]. 1.2 Shipment - From November 17 to November 23, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment was 3278.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 238.0 million tons. The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2637.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 271.3 million tons [5]. 1.3 Arrival - From November 17 to November 23, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2939.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 569.6 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2817.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 548.2 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1438.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 397.0 million tons [5]. 1.4 Demand - The average daily molten iron output was 234.68 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.81 million tons [5]. 1.5 Inventory - As of November 28, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 15901.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 166.37 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 284.33 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8942.48 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.75 million tons [5]. 1.6 Profit Rate - The profit rate of steel mills was 35.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89 percentage points [5]. 1.7 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, overseas, the market's expectation of the December meeting fluctuates between "rate cut" and "maintaining the status quo", and the probability of a rate cut has risen to about 80%. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission is taking measures to regulate price competition. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has decreased, the arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has stopped falling and rebounded; the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and molten iron output of steel mills have declined slightly. Technically, the iron ore I2601 contract has shifted upward, and the daily K - line is above multiple moving averages. The I2601 contract may maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2601 contract fluctuated slightly upward. The price of the I2601 contract was weaker than that of the I2605 contract. On the 28th, the price difference was 26 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton [13]. 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Long Positions - On November 28, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1300, a week - on - week increase of 500. The net long position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 16881, an increase of 16354 compared with the previous week [19]. 2.3 Spot Price - On November 28, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 28th, the basis was 49 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Industry Situation 3.1 Arrival Volume - From November 17 to November 23, 2025, the total arrival volume at 45 ports in China increased. The total global iron ore shipment decreased, and the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased [29]. 3.2 Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 15901.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 166.37 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 344.06 million tons, an increase of 0.67 million tons. The inventory of steel mills' imported iron ore was 8942.48 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.75 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 289.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.9 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 days [33]. 3.3 Inventory Availability Days - As of November 27, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore at large and medium - sized steel mills in China was 20 days, a week - on - week increase of 0 days. On November 27, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2480, a week - on - week increase of 205 [38]. 3.4 Import Volume and Mine Capacity Utilization - In October, China's iron ore imports were 11130.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 501.7 million tons and a month - on - month decline of 4.3%; from January to October, the cumulative imports were 102888.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. As of November 28, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 63.51%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%; the average daily output of concentrate powder was 40.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18 million tons; the inventory was 40.52 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 million tons [41]. 3.5 Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Output - In October 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 8403.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%; from January to October, the cumulative output was 85173.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. In October, the output of iron concentrate powder from 433 domestic iron mines was 2294.0 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.5 million tons and an increase of 0.4%; from January to October, the cumulative output was 22966.0 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 882.4 million tons and a decline of 3.7% [45]. 4. Downstream Situation 4.1 Crude Steel Output - In October 2025, China's crude steel output was 7200 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, China's crude steel output was 81787 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [48]. 4.2 Steel Import and Export - In October 2025, China's steel exports were 978.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%; imports were 50.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 9773.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%; the cumulative imports were 504.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9% [48]. 4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Output - On November 28, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.18 percentage points. The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.68 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.81 million tons [51]. 5. Option Market - The fundamentals of iron ore are generally in a state of loose supply, but the macro - expectations are positive, the spot price is firm, and the futures price fluctuates slightly upward. For far - month iron ore, consider buying out - of - the - money call options [54].
铁矿石市场周报：现货表现坚挺，铁矿期价震荡偏强-20251128
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-28 10:03