棉花（纱）市场周报-20251128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract 2601 rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.97%. The domestic cotton market has a loose supply - demand situation. The new cotton purchase is almost over, but the sales of new flowers are slow, and the port inventory remains high. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, with fewer new orders for textile enterprises and a slow - down in the shipment of cotton yarn [5]. - Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory levels. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - Market Review: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract 2601 rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.97% [5]. - Market Outlook: On the supply side, the new cotton purchase is near the end, and the cost is fixed with the price of seed cotton. However, the sales of new flowers are significantly slow, and the market digestion is slower than expected. The port inventory remains high. As of November 27, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports increased by 1.28% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 380,300 tons. The shipment in RMB is limited, with more imports than exports and light market trading. On the demand side, the downstream demand has not improved significantly. Textile enterprises have significantly fewer new orders, the shipment of cotton yarn has slowed down, and the overall market transaction atmosphere is weak. The current loose supply - demand situation continues. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the actual restocking willingness improves and macro - dynamics [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: As of October 7, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 70,902 lots, a decrease of 1,689 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 129,324 lots, an increase of 6,748 lots from the previous week; the net short position was 58,422 lots, an increase of 8,437 lots from the previous week. The price of the US cotton March contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.06% [8][11]. - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: For the week ending October 9, US current - year cotton export sales increased by 157,600 bales net, a decrease of 21% from the previous week and an increase of 1% from the average of the previous four weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 74.5 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.15 cents per pound from last week [15]. - Futures Market: The price of Zhengzhou cotton contract 2601 rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.97%. The cotton yarn futures contract 2601 increased by about 1.85%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 123,629 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 764 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,408, and that of cotton yarn futures was 14 [20][26][30]. - Spot Market: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,896 yuan per ton. The national purchase price of seed cotton 3128B was 3.15 yuan per 500 grams, and that in Xinjiang was 3.42 yuan per 500 grams. The price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,660 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,700 yuan per ton, and CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,670 yuan per ton [39][42][54]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of November 27, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 13,895 yuan per ton, an increase of 52 yuan per ton from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,866 yuan per ton, an increase of 82 yuan per ton from last week. As of November 26, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 19,987 yuan per ton; C32S was 21,097 yuan per ton; JC32S was 22,870 yuan per ton [58]. - Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit: As of November 27, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 987 yuan per ton, an increase of 39 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,940 yuan per ton, an increase of 9 yuan per ton from last week [61]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Supply Side: - Commercial Cotton Inventory: At the end of October, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 186.84%, and 43,400 tons higher than the same period last year. As of the end of October, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 888,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 61,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 42,700 tons [64]. - Imported Cotton Quantity: In October 2025, China's total cotton imports were about 90,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons or 15.6%. In October 2025, China imported 140,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [70]. - Demand Side: - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory: As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the grey cloth inventory days were 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [73]. - Textile and Garment Exports: In October 2025, China's textile and garment exports were 22.26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. Among them, textile exports were 11.258 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.9%; garment exports were 11 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 16.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.6% [78]. - Domestic Garment Retail Sales: As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of clothing retail sales was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [82]. 3.4 Options and Stock - related Markets - Options Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data analysis is provided [83]. - Stock Market: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is shown in the chart, but no specific data analysis is provided [86].