白糖市场周报-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.88%. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased, and the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped also declined by 10.1%. In the domestic market, the sugar - cane crushing in Guangxi was relatively delayed, while the progress in Yunnan was faster than last year. The entry of low - priced new sugar from Guangxi into the market drove down the sugar price in Yunnan. Although processed sugar and beet sugar had some impact, their prices were relatively firm, providing support for the sugar price in Guangxi. With the market's major negative factors mostly digested and the pessimistic sentiment easing, the sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the future. Future factors to watch include the domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Market Review: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.88% [5]. - Market Outlook: As of the week of November 26, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 61 to 56, and the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped dropped from 229.94 million tons to 206.72 million tons, a 10.1% decline. In the domestic market, as of now, 21 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 2025/26 season, 36 less than the same period last year, while 9 sugar mills in Yunnan have started, 4 more than last year. The new sugar from Guangxi entered the market, driving down the sugar price in Yunnan. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the future [5]. - Future Focus: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 US Sugar Market - The price of the US Sugar March contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 2.37%. As of October 7, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 114,807 lots, an increase of 9,600 lots from the previous week. Long positions decreased by 4,117 lots to 177,486 lots, and short positions increased by 5,483 lots to 292,293 lots [10]. 3.2.2 International Raw Sugar Spot Market - This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.32 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.28 cents per pound from last week [17]. 3.2.3 Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Market - The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.88%. The top 20 net position of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 60,406 lots, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 0, and the valid forecast was 183 [21][27]. - The spread between the Zhengzhou Sugar 1 - 5 contracts was + 73 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 215 yuan/ton [31]. 3.2.4 Spot Market - As of November 28, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,615 yuan/ton [37]. - This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,501 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 79 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 89 yuan/ton from last week [43]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [47]. - As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91% month - on - month, and an increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% year - on - year [50]. - In October 2025, China's sugar imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.62% and a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.12% [54]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - As of the end of October 2025, sugar mills in the 2024/25 crushing season had all stopped crushing. The national sugar production in this sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [60]. - In October 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 883,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.1%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 10.962 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [64]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - No specific content analysis for the option market is provided except for the figure of the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Zhengzhou sugar this week. For the stock - related market, a figure of the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is given, but no specific analysis [65][70].