有色周报：碳酸锂-20251130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals are strong but there are frequent disturbances. The expected resumption of mining production and policy position limits have triggered a long - short game. In the short term, lithium prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to inventory depletion and the resumption rhythm [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - The fundamentals of lithium are strong, with tight supply - demand balance in the industry chain as weekly inventory has dropped to 116,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 2,452 tons) for 13 consecutive weeks. However, there are also disturbances such as the accelerated resumption of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine and the weakening of downstream procurement after the rise in spot prices, along with the impact of exchange position - limit measures [10][12]. 3.2 Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Global Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, global lithium demand has been increasing. For example, the demand for power battery cathodes increased from 66,000 tons LCE in 2018A to 880,000 tons LCE in 2025E. The global effective lithium supply has also been growing, from 309,000 tons LCE in 2018A to 1,650,000 tons LCE in 2025E. The global effective lithium supply - demand balance shows a trend of change, with a surplus in most years [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Balance Sheet - In the domestic market, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate have been fluctuating. For example, in November 2025E, the total supply of lithium carbonate is estimated to be 119,100 tons, and the total demand is 129,892 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 10,792 tons. In December 2025E, the total supply is estimated to be 121,960 tons, and the total demand is 127,806 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 5,846 tons [16]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply and Demand - Lithium Carbonate: In November, the estimated total supply of lithium carbonate is 119,100 tons and 121,960 tons respectively, and the total demand is 129,892 tons and 127,806 tons respectively, showing a supply shortage [10][16]. - Other Products: There are also data on the supply and demand of products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, manganese - acid lithium, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles, including their production, output growth rates, etc. [23][31][41] 3.3.2 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate: In October, the monthly inventory of lithium carbonate was 84,234 physical tons, including 53,291 physical tons of downstream inventory and 30,943 physical tons of smelter inventory. This week, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 115,968 physical tons, including 24,324 physical tons of smelter inventory, 41,984 physical tons of cathode factory inventory, and 49,660 physical tons of battery and trader inventory [10][74]. - Other Products: There are also inventory data for products such as ternary materials, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium [76][77]. 3.3.3 Price - On November 28, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.57%, and the futures price was 96,420 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,670 yuan/ton. There are also price data for other products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium [82][83]. 3.3.4 Import and Export - There are data on the import and export volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including the import volume from different countries and the export volume to different countries [80].