策略周报：缩量修复之后，市场如何布局？-20251130

Group 1 - The bond market is entering a configuration phase, supported by year-end policy expectations, a loose funding environment, and institutional "early bird" allocations. However, profit-taking intentions among institutions are strong, suggesting that the bond allocation momentum at the end of 2025 may be weaker than in previous years. A trading strategy focused on swing trading is recommended, with the 10-year government bond futures yield around 1.83%, reflecting pessimistic expectations and limited room for significant upward movement. It is advised to gradually allocate high-yield, liquid quality credit bonds while managing overall duration risk, waiting for market sentiment recovery and value reassessment [1][11][12] Group 2 - The stock market is in a phase of consolidation, with a recent recovery showing a shrinking upward trend, indicating a decline in investor trading enthusiasm. In the absence of clear positive catalysts, the market is expected to enter a consolidation phase. As the year-end approaches, funding behavior may become more cautious, favoring stability and locking in annual returns, leading to significant structural characteristics in market opportunities. The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December may provide a temporary catalyst, particularly in areas of technological innovation and industrial upgrading, suggesting a new window for allocation [2][12][13] Group 3 - The A-share market has shown significant recovery after a substantial adjustment, with a maximum drawdown from the peak. The rapid adjustment has released some risks, and there is a technical rebound demand in the market. Positive sentiment from the recent US-China presidential call has boosted market risk appetite, leading to a strong rebound in the stock market. Additionally, the rapid growth of Alibaba's AI assistant "Qianwen" has positively impacted AI-related stocks [9][12][13] Group 4 - The US stock market is expected to continue its recovery, with recent retail sales data indicating a marginal slowdown in US economic growth. The impact of tariffs on inflation appears limited, and the labor market remains weak. The upcoming release of the US October PCE core price index is expected to further confirm that tariffs have not significantly pressured inflation. In this context, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is likely, with plans to formally end balance sheet reduction and continue injecting liquidity into the market, suggesting a trend towards a looser overall monetary environment [12][13]