策略月报：震荡蓄势，来年可期（2025年12月）-20251130

Market Review - The A-share market is expected to maintain resilience in the long term, but potential mid-term risks may increase due to factors such as valuation shifts, institutional settlement cycles, and high market sentiment indices [2] - In November, the market experienced a mid-term adjustment after reaching new highs in the first half of the month, with major indices declining in the latter half [2][10] Economic Environment - In October, several economic indicators, including fixed asset investment and retail sales, showed slower growth than expected, with CPI rising and PPI continuing to decline [3][29] - The manufacturing PMI remained below the prosperity range, indicating that the economy requires sustained efforts for improvement [3] Policy Environment - The government is focusing on boosting consumption and effective investment, with plans to develop three trillion-level consumption sectors by 2027 [4] - The overall stability of major country relations is maintained, with a tactical easing in China-US economic relations, although geopolitical tensions persist [4] Investment Strategy - The market is currently in a phase of valuation consolidation, with a dynamic balance between profit-taking and short-selling sentiment [7] - Investors are advised to focus on fundamental research and gradually position themselves for the upcoming year, maintaining a "barbell" strategy that emphasizes dividend assets and technological innovation [7] Industry Performance - As of November 28, 90.3% of the 28 Shenwan first-level industries have seen year-to-date increases, with non-ferrous metals and communications industries rising over 50% [15] - In November, the comprehensive and banking sectors outperformed, while sectors like computers and automobiles faced declines [15][19] Fund Flow - As of November 28, southbound funds recorded a cumulative net inflow of 50,797 million HKD, with a monthly net inflow of 1,218.9 million HKD [25] - Margin financing balances have decreased, indicating a potential cooling in market sentiment after reaching historical highs [27] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth forecast for Q4 is 4.5%, with various economic indicators showing signs of slowing down, including fixed asset investment and manufacturing PMI [30][29] - The CPI rose by 0.2% in October, while PPI continued to decline, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industrial sector [33][36]