芳烃橡胶早报-20251201

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: PTA Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, crude oil remained stable at 63.3, while PTA spot price was 4610, and POY 150D/48F was 6490. Naphtha cracking spread was 101.72, PX processing margin was 260, PTA processing margin was 162, and polyester gross profit was 92. PTA balance load was 78.2, and PTA load was 71.0. The change in仓单+有效预报was 324, and TA basis declined by 10, with sales-to-production ratio remaining unchanged [3]. - PTA's average daily trading basis was 2601(-36), and Honggang's 2.5 million - ton plant restarted [3]. Weekly View - Near - term TA: Some plants restarted, with开工 rate rising, polyester load slightly increasing, inventory decreasing, basis strengthening, and spot processing fee weakening. PX domestic开工 rate declined, some overseas plants reduced production, PXN strengthened, disproportionation efficiency was weak, and isomerization efficiency was stable. The US - Asia aromatics spread shrank [3]. - Future outlook: TA will maintain high - maintenance status, downstream (especially filaments and staple fibers) shows no obvious pressure. With India revoking BIS certification, TA inventory accumulation rate is low, far - month production capacity addition is limited, and PX situation is good. Attention should be paid to opportunities for long - short arbitrage at low prices and expanding processing fees [3]. Group 3: MEG Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, Northeast Asian ethylene was 730. MEG's external price was 461, internal price was 3900, East China price was 3900, far - month price was 3907. MEG coal - based profit was - 478, internal cash flow (ethylene) was - 668, total load was 70.8, coal - based MEG load was 66.5, and port inventory was 73.2 [3]. - MEG's basis was around 01(+5), and Shenghong's 900,000 - ton plant restarted [3]. Weekly View - Near - term: There was concentrated restart of domestic coal - chemical plants,开工 rate increased, some overseas plants were under maintenance, port inventory was stable at the beginning of the week, and the forecast of weekly arrivals was low. Basis weakened, and coal - based efficiency improved slightly [3]. - Future outlook: With supply reduction and high polyester开工 rate, inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. Coal - based efficiency is at a low level, and the comparison with other olefins has weakened. The room for further compression of the current valuation is limited. Attention should be paid to short - term put - selling opportunities. In the long term, with new plant launches and warehouse receipts suppressing the market structure, the overall situation is expected to be weak [3]. Group 4: Polyester Staple Fiber Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber was 6365, low - melting staple fiber was 7580, and other product prices remained stable. The开工 rate of virgin staple fiber was 98, recycled cotton - type was 51, and yarn - making开工 rate was 66. Short - fiber profit was 99, pure polyester yarn profit was 35, cotton - polyester staple fiber spread was 8115, and viscose - polyester staple fiber spread was 6485 [3]. - The spot price was around 6312, and the market basis was around 01 - 90 [3]. Weekly View - Near - term: Plant operation was stable,开工 rate was maintained at 97.5%, sales - to - production ratio improved slightly, and inventory decreased. On the demand side, the开工 rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory decreased, and finished - product inventory increased, with efficiency maintained [3]. - Future outlook: Short - fiber demand remains basically the same as before. Although the efficiency and开工 rate of polyester yarn have not improved significantly, short - fiber exports maintain high growth, and short - term inventory pressure is limited. In the far - month, downstream enters the off - season, and with new plant launches approaching, the situation may weaken. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt conditions [3]. Group 5: Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 5 to 1830, Thai mixed rubber increased by 10 to 1825, RMB mixed rubber increased by 70 to 14630, Shanghai full - latex increased by 170 to 14710, and Shanghai 3L remained unchanged at 15200 [6]. - The weekly change in the difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract was - 100, between US - dollar Thai standard rubber and NR main contract was - 11, between RU09 and RU01 was 0, and between RU main contract and NR main contract was 180. The上期所RU仓单 remained unchanged at 41400 [6]. Main Contradictions - National explicit inventory is stable, and the absolute level is not high [6]. - Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping [6]. Strategy - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [6]. Group 6: Styrene Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was 730, pure benzene (CFR China) increased from 664 to 665, pure benzene (East China) increased by 35 to 5355, and styrene (CFR China) increased by 5 to 820 [10]. - The daily change in PS (East China transparent benzene) was 0, ABS (0215A) was 0, Asian spread was 0, pure benzene - naphtha spread was 0, styrene domestic profit decreased by 50 to 25, EPS domestic profit decreased by 50, and PS and ABS domestic profits remained unchanged at - 926 [10].