Report Information - Report date: December 01, 2025 [2] - Report type: Industrial Silicon Daily Report - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The Si2601 contract closed at 9,130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The trading volume was 197,891 lots, and the open interest was 211,799 lots, a net decrease of 25,849 lots. The spot price increased slightly this week. The weekly reduction in industrial silicon production continued to increase, with an estimated output of about 386,000 tons in November. The demand side also weakened synchronously. Organic silicon enterprises reached a consensus on production cuts, with an output of 218,400 tons in November and a decline in the operating rate starting in December. Polysilicon was in the season of seasonal production cuts, with an estimated output of 118,000 tons in November. The imbalance between supply and demand has not been reversed. The centralized cancellation of futures warehouse receipts increased the liquidity of the spot market, but the high inventory remained unchanged, and the price will face real selling pressure after rebounding to a high level. The price of the 01 contract recently rebounded after being supported by the spot price, but the upside space was limited, and it will fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures market: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The Si2601 contract closed at 9,130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The trading volume was 197,891 lots, and the open interest was 211,799 lots, a net decrease of 25,849 lots [4]. - Spot market: The spot price increased in some regions today. The price of 553-grade silicon in Sichuan was 9,350 yuan/ton, and that in Yunnan was 9,200 yuan/ton. The price of 421-grade silicon in Sichuan was 10,100 yuan/ton, that in Xinjiang was 9,700 yuan/ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 9,700 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Supply side: The weekly reduction in industrial silicon production continued to increase, with an estimated output of about 386,000 tons in November [4]. - Demand side: The demand side also weakened synchronously. Organic silicon enterprises reached a consensus on production cuts, with an output of 218,400 tons in November and a decline in the operating rate starting in December. Polysilicon was in the season of seasonal production cuts, with an estimated output of 118,000 tons in November [4]. - Market situation: The imbalance between supply and demand has not been reversed. The centralized cancellation of futures warehouse receipts increased the liquidity of the spot market, but the high inventory remained unchanged, and the price will face real selling pressure after rebounding to a high level. The price of the 01 contract recently rebounded after being supported by the spot price, but the upside space was limited, and it will fluctuate [4]. 3.3 Market News - On November 28, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 6,596 lots, a net decrease of 32,959 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.36 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 35.82% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.78%. In October 2025, the export volume of China's primary polysiloxane in the form of silicone was 40,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.49% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.65%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of primary polysiloxane in the form of silicone was 460,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.51% [5].
建信期货工业硅日报-20251201
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-12-01 01:15