建信期货豆粕日报-20251201

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: December 1, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - The US soybean futures contract on the external market was closed today, with the main contract at 1130 cents. The USDA's November monthly supply and demand report showed that the yield per unit was lowered from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, and the export item was reduced from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels. The ending inventory was slightly lowered to 290 million bushels, which was bearish. The US NOPA's October crushing data exceeded expectations and reached a record high for a single month [6]. - The domestic soybean meal fluctuated at a high level this week following the CBOT soybeans. After the China - US reached a phased agreement, the domestic soybean meal returned to the cost - pricing model of CBOT soybeans. There is support at the bottom due to cost increase and low crushing profit, but there is also inventory pressure [6]. Operational Suggestions - The recent volatility may decrease, and it should be treated as a high - level oscillation. For options, pay attention to the straddle short - selling strategy [6]. Contract Data | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2601 | 3039 | 3055 | 3060 | 3041 | 3044 | 5 | 0.16% | 622626 | 1297132 | - 48625 | | Soybean Meal 2603 | 3015 | 3054 | 3054 | 3026 | 3036 | 21 | 0.70% | 95620 | 543481 | 13990 | | Soybean Meal 2605 | 2836 | 2828 | 2855 | 2828 | 2845 | 9 | 0.32% | 398648 | 1462928 | 46714 | [6] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week of November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96% [9]. - On November 18, private exporters reported selling 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would be a record 177.7 million tons, with a predicted crushing volume of 60.5 million tons and an export volume of 111 million tons in 2026 [10].