建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251201

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of eggs in the country remained stable today, with the average price in the main producing areas at 2.99 yuan/jin and that in the main consuming areas at 3.23 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract rose 0.73%. After the spot price stabilized in the previous few days, it increased in some areas today. The futures market rose strongly, mainly due to the anticipation being factored in early. As the spot price has reached a phased bottom and the demand expectation for the double festivals in December is hard to disprove, the market generally believes that the egg price may be slightly stronger in early December. Traders are willing to wait for the subsequent small peak season to sell, reducing the supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether the spot price will rise as expected this weekend and next week. If the egg price continues to strengthen, there may be an opportunity to expand the 1 - 2 spread, and short - sellers are advised to lay out positions in post - festival contracts. The 01 contract's rebound is based on phased expectations, and its sustainability depends on the spot market [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The 2601 contract of eggs opened at 3282, closed at 3293, up 24 points or 0.73% from the previous settlement price, with a trading volume of 185,804 and an open interest of 170,648, an increase of 154,196. The 2602 contract opened at 3056, closed at 3073, up 24 points or 0.79%, with a trading volume of 60,460 and an open interest of 135,972, an increase of 4,315. The 2512 contract opened at 2960, closed at 2907, down 41 points or - 1.39%, with a trading volume of 13,969 and an open interest of 339, a decrease of 10,419 [7]. - Operation Suggestions: If the egg price runs strongly in the future, pay attention to the potential opportunity of the 1 - 2 spread expansion. Short - sellers are advised to lay out positions in post - festival contracts. Treat the 01 contract's rebound as a phased expectation, and its sustainability requires support from the spot market [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory: As of the end of October 2025, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.66% from the end of September 2025 (1.368 billion), ending the previous continuous growth trend, but an increase of 5.59% compared with the end of October 2024 (1.287 billion) [9]. - Replenishment: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying hen chicks of sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025, and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period in 2024. The total replenishment in the past four months (July - October 2025) was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period last year [9]. - Elimination Volume: As of November 20, 2025, the elimination volumes of laying hens in the previous three weeks were 19.81 million, 19.47 million, and 20.21 million respectively. The elimination volume fluctuated recently, but generally increased slightly compared with the previous period [9][10]. - Elimination Age: As of November 20, 2025, the average elimination age of laying hens was 492 days, one day earlier than last week and seven days earlier than last month, indicating an accelerated elimination speed [10].