PTA、MEG早报-20251201

Report Information - Report Title: PTA&MEG Morning Report - December 1, 2025 [1] - Author: Jin Zebin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759, Investment Consulting Qualification Certificate No.: Z0015557 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with the expected improvement in the supply pattern, strong polyester load, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosting export demand, the inventory accumulation expectation has reversed, and there may be phased de - inventory. However, the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, although the arrival of goods was low last week and the visible inventory is expected to decline slightly early next week, there will be a concentrated arrival of Saudi and Canadian goods in early December, and the inventory is difficult to see a continuous decline. The short - term market is expected to adjust widely, and attention should be paid to temporary device changes and annual contract negotiations [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not mentioned in the report 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: On Friday, next - week spot was traded around 01 - 3540, with a price negotiation range around 4,580 - 4,660. Transactions in mid - December and late December were also around 01 - 3540. Next - week warehouse receipts were traded around 01 - 35. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 38, showing a neutral situation [5]. - Basis: The spot price was 4,635, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 21, with the futures price at a premium, a neutral situation [5]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days compared to the previous period, showing a bullish situation [5]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average was upward, but the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [5]. - Main Position: The net position was long, and the long position increased, showing a bullish situation [5]. - Expectation: The expected inventory accumulation of PTA has reversed, and there may be phased de - inventory. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was adjusted at a low level, and the near - end basis continued to weaken. The night - session futures price opened low and consolidated, with weak market trading. During the day, the futures price rebounded slightly, and the spot basis continued to weaken. In the afternoon, the spot was traded at a discount of 2 - 3 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, mainly for traders' swap transactions. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol was adjusted widely, with the mainstream negotiation of ship cargoes around 460 - 465 US dollars/ton. Ship cargoes at the end of December were traded around 465 US dollars/ton, and Taiwan tender goods were traded around 463 - 465 US dollars/ton. The negotiation ranges of domestic and foreign transactions were 3,855 - 3,909 yuan/ton and 462 US dollars/ton respectively, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Basis: The spot price was 3,879, and the basis of the 01 contract was 45, with the futures price at a discount, a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 70.7 million tons, an increase of 7.2 million tons compared to the previous period, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Main Position: The net position was short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish situation [6]. - Expectation: The arrival of ethylene glycol was low last week, and the visible inventory is expected to decline slightly early next week. However, there will be a concentrated arrival of Saudi and Canadian goods in early December, and the inventory is difficult to see a continuous decline. The short - term market is expected to adjust widely, and attention should be paid to temporary device changes and annual contract negotiations [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Not mentioned in the report 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data [10]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, and inventory data [11]. Price Data - It shows the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers from November 27 to November 28, 2025, as well as the basis and profit data of futures contracts [12]. Other Data - There are also data on PET bottle chips (including price, production profit, capacity utilization, and inventory), PTA and MEG spreads (including inter - month spreads, basis spreads, and spot spreads), inventory analysis (including PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fiber inventories), and production start - up data of the polyester industry chain (including upstream and downstream start - up rates) [13][29][39][51]