Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. With the weakening of the hype about domestic production cuts and overseas floods, the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the terminal demand improvement is weak. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - Spot Price and Basis: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex increased, and the basis of whole latex also changed. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased slightly, and there were also changes in non - standard price differences and raw material prices [1]. - Monthly Spread: There were changes in the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads of natural rubber contracts [1]. - Fundamental Data: In September, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased to varying degrees, and the production of China increased. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, and in October, domestic tire production, export volume, and natural rubber import volume all decreased [1]. - Inventory Change: The bonded area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and there were also changes in the outbound and inbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Affected by the repeated Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations and Trump's threat to Venezuela, short - term geopolitical factors still support oil prices. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel in the short term [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - Crude Oil Price and Spread: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 [3]. - Refined Oil Price and Spread: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as RBOB M1 - M3, ULSD M1 - M3, and Gasoil M1 - M3 [3]. - Refined Oil Crack Spread: The crack spreads of US gasoline, European gasoline, Singapore gasoline, etc. changed [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Soda Ash: Although the production of soda ash has decreased significantly due to some device overhauls, and the manufacturer's inventory has decreased, there is still an over - supply problem in the medium term, and the overall demand is in a contraction pattern. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern [5]. - Glass: In the short term, there is still some rigid demand support, but in the medium and long term, the demand is expected to shrink, and the glass price will be under pressure. The short - term disk is expected to be strong, but the 01 contract may face pressure when approaching the delivery month [5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - Glass - Related Price and Spread: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China changed, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of glass futures contracts [5]. - Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained stable, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of soda ash futures contracts [5]. - Supply: The operating rate and weekly output of soda ash decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass also decreased [5]. - Inventory: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass and soda ash decreased, and the inventory days of soda ash in glass factories remained unchanged [5]. - Real Estate Data: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate showed different trends [5]. Group 4: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The supply of inland methanol increases with the restart of devices, but the profits of coal - based and gas - based production are weak. The traditional downstream operating rate has increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provides support. In the port area, due to gas restrictions in Iran, multiple devices have stopped production, and the import volume in the first quarter is expected to decline significantly, strengthening the port destocking expectation and providing bottom support for prices [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - Methanol Price and Spread: The prices of methanol futures contracts and spot prices in different regions changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as MA15 and regional spreads [6]. - Methanol Inventory: The inventory of methanol enterprises increased, while the port inventory and social inventory decreased [6]. - Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased, the operating rate of downstream MTO devices decreased, and the operating rates of some traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde increased [6][7]. Group 5: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, the inventory is being depleted faster but is still higher than in previous years, and the cost - side profit is compressed. The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, the supply is on the rise, and the upstream inventory is being depleted faster but is still higher than the same period. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - Polyolefin Price and Spread: The prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 futures contracts increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01 [9]. - PE and PP Inventory: The enterprise inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the trading - company inventory of PP also decreased [9]. - PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The operating rate of PE devices increased, the downstream weighted operating rate decreased slightly; the operating rate of PP devices decreased slightly, the operating rate of PP powder increased, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased slightly [9]. Group 6: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Pure Benzene: Although the supply - demand expectation has slightly improved due to some device overhauls, the current spot supply is sufficient, and there is an expectation of port inventory accumulation. The demand - side support is limited, and it is expected that the price of pure benzene will face pressure on the upside. Short - term BZ2603 is recommended to be short on rebounds [11]. - Styrene: Although some integrated devices are under centralized overhaul, the overall operating rate is stable, and the supply is expected to remain. The demand support is limited, but the inventory accumulation expectation is not obvious at the end and beginning of the month. Overall, the supply - demand of styrene is in a tight balance, but the upward driving force is insufficient. Short - term EB01 is expected to oscillate between 6300 - 6600 [11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - Upstream Price and Spread: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene changed, and there were also changes in price differences such as pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha [11]. - Styrene - Related Price and Spread: The prices of styrene futures contracts and spot prices increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as EB01 - EB02 and EB - BZ [11]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flow: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol, caprolactam, and aniline changed [11]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu increased [11]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rate: The operating rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and some downstream products changed [11]. Group 7: Ester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - PX: Although the supply is currently at a relatively high level, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future. The demand - side support is stronger than expected. Short - term PX is expected to oscillate at a high level, and there is an expectation of improvement in the medium - term supply - demand [12]. - PTA: The supply reduction is greater than expected, and the demand - side support is strong. The supply - demand expectation has been significantly repaired, but the price rebound space is limited. TA01 may oscillate between 4500 - 4800 in the short term, and attention can be paid to the low - level positive spread opportunity of TA5 - 9 [12]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The supply - side contraction is not obvious, and the demand is supported by rigid demand. It is expected to oscillate in December, and EG2601 may oscillate between 3750 - 4000 [12]. - Short Fiber: The supply - demand is weak. Although the inventory pressure is not large in the short term, the absolute price driving force is limited, and the processing fee is mainly under compression. PFO2 is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the PF processing fee on the disk is recommended to be shorted on highs [12]. - Bottle Chip: The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand is loose, and the social inventory is likely to accumulate seasonally. PR follows the cost - side fluctuation, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - Upstream Price: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene changed [12]. - PX - Related Price and Spread: The prices of CFR China PX, PX futures contracts, and PX price differences changed [12]. - PTA - Related Price and Spread: The prices of PTA spot and futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in the basis and processing fees [12]. - MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectation: The MEG port inventory remained unchanged, and the arrival expectation decreased [12]. - Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate: The operating rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, MEG, and other industries changed [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry is still under pressure, the demand - side support is weak, and it is expected that the price of caustic soda will run weakly [13]. - PVC: It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern. The supply pressure remains, the demand is sluggish, and although there is an advantage in export prices, the overall demand - side support is weak, and the price is difficult to rise significantly [13]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and East China calcium - carbide - based PVC changed, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of PVC and caustic soda futures contracts [13]. - Caustic Soda Overseas Quotation & Export Profit: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased, and the export profit decreased [13]. - PVC Overseas Quotation & Export Profit: The CFR prices of PVC in Southeast Asia and India decreased, and the export profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC in Tianjin Port changed [13]. - Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rate & Industry Profit: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased, and the profits of calcium - carbide - based PVC and northwest integrated PVC decreased [13]. - Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rate: The operating rates of the alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries changed [13]. - Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rate: The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased, and the pre - sales volume of PVC decreased [13]. - Inventory: Social Inventory & Annual: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC decreased [13]. Group 9: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Not provided Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - LPG Price and Spread: The prices of LPG futures contracts such as PG2512, PG2601, etc. increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as PG12 - 01, PG12 - 02, etc. [14]. - LPG Outer - Market Price: The prices of FEI forward M1, M2 contracts and CP swap M1, M2 contracts decreased [14]. - LPG Inventory: The refinery storage ratio and port inventory of LPG decreased [14]. - LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The operating rate of upstream main refineries decreased, the sample enterprise's weekly sales - to - production ratio decreased, the operating rate of downstream PDH increased slightly, the operating rate of MTBE remained unchanged, and the operating rate of alkylation decreased [14].
《能源化工》日报-20251201
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-12-01 01:32