橡胶策略周报：多单持有-20251201

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests holding long positions in natural rubber futures, maintaining a bullish view [1][2][7] 2) Core Viewpoints - The natural rubber market is in a volatile upward trend this week, reaching the upper limit of the range. The technical form has improved, but the volatile pattern remains. The fundamentals are bullish, but the market has a pessimistic outlook on future demand, making the price movement difficult. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view and focus on the inventory situation in Qingdao [3][6][7] 3) Summary by Directory Futures Market Review - RU2601 opened at 15,270, reached a high of 15,525, a low of 14,980, and closed at 15,410, up 1.12%. NR2601 opened at 12,250, reached a high of 12,400, a low of 11,995, and closed at 12,275, down 0.08%. BR2601 opened at 10,400, reached a high of 10,470, a low of 10,180, and closed at 10,415, up 0.29%. The natural rubber market oscillated upward this week, reaching the upper limit of the range, with an improved technical form but still in a volatile pattern [3] Spot Market Review - The price of 2023 state - owned whole latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, is 15,000 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week. The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 2,120 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last week. The price of BR9000 in Shanghai is 10,650 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week [4] Inventory Review - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week. The subtotal inventory increased by 7,207 tons to 85,582 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 1,800 tons to 41,400 tons. The inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, which will put pressure on price increases [5] Market Structure - The basis strengthened this week because the spot price increased more [5] Forecast and Operation Strategy - The natural rubber market oscillated upward this week, reaching the upper limit of the range. The raw material prices in Thailand showed mixed trends this week. The tire enterprise operating rates were also mixed, with the all - steel tire rate rising and the semi - steel tire rate falling. The semi - steel tire inventory decreased, and the all - steel tire inventory remained unchanged. The natural rubber market is in a volatile pattern, with bullish fundamentals. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view and focus on the inventory in Qingdao [6][7]