沪锌期货早报-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc ZN2601 is expected to be an oscillating rebound. The previous trading day saw an oscillating rebound in Shanghai zinc, with shrinking trading volume and small reductions in both long and short positions. Technically, the price is near the long - term moving average with strong support, short - term indicator KDJ is rising in the weak area, and the trend indicator shows that both long and short forces are rising and becoming intertwined [2][19] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc sheet production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons [2] 2. Basis - The spot price is 22,460, and the basis is +35, indicating a neutral situation [2] 3. Inventory - On November 28, LME zinc inventory increased by 950 tons to 51,750 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,501 tons to 67,617 tons [2] 4. Futures Market Quotes - On November 28, the zinc futures of different delivery months showed various price changes. For example, for the 2512 delivery month, the previous settlement price was 22,440, the opening price was 22,320, the highest price was 22,420, the lowest price was 22,280, and the closing price was 22,385 [3] 5. Spot Market Quotes - On November 28, the price of domestic zinc concentrate had different levels. The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate comprehensive TC was 70 US dollars/dry ton. The price of 0 zinc in different regions also varied, such as 22,460 yuan/ton in Shanghai, 22,300 yuan/ton in Guangdong, 22,370 yuan/ton in Tianjin, and 22,530 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [4] 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From November 17 to November 27, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 162,400 tons to 140,400 tons. Compared with November 20, it decreased by 19,400 tons, and compared with November 24, it decreased by 11,200 tons [5] 7. Zinc Warrant Report - On November 28, the total zinc warrants of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 67,617 tons, a decrease of 1,501 tons. Different regions had different warrant changes, such as a decrease of 872 tons in Guangdong and a decrease of 224 tons in Tianjin [6] 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On November 28, the LME zinc inventory had different changes in different locations, with a total increase of 950 tons to 51,750 tons [7] 9. Zinc Concentrate Price - On November 28, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities was around 18,210 - 18,610 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [9] 10. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On November 28, the price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters decreased by 80 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Mochazhaojing was 22,640 yuan/ton, and that from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 23,070 yuan/ton [12] 11. Refined Zinc Production - In October 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 524,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and a 2.88% increase compared to the planned value. The planned production for November is 522,300 tons [15] 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On November 28, the processing fee of 50% - grade domestic zinc concentrate was around 2,200 - 2,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate processing fee was 60 - 80 US dollars/dry ton, with a decrease of 10 US dollars/dry ton [17] 13. Member Trading and Position Ranking - On November 28, in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, for zinc trading, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 28,212 lots, Orient Futures (on behalf of clients) with 24,739 lots, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 22,295 lots. In terms of long positions, the top three were Orient Futures (on behalf of clients) with 10,229 lots, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 9,694 lots, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 7,863 lots. In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 16,159 lots, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 8,976 lots, and Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 5,056 lots [18]