大越期货沪铜早报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper supply is subject to disruptions with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap - copper policies being relaxed. The November China Manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. The overall assessment of the fundamentals is neutral [2]. - The spot price is 87360 with a basis of - 70, indicating a discount to the futures, which is neutral [2]. - On November 28, copper inventories increased by 2250 to 159425 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 12673 tons to 97930 tons compared with the previous week, a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upwards, showing a bullish trend [2]. - The net position of the main players is long, but the long positions are decreasing, also showing a bullish trend [2]. - With inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining (such as the event at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine), copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The supply - side of copper has disturbances, and the PMI shows marginal improvement. The overall fundamentals, basis, and inventory are neutral; the price trend and main - player positions are bullish. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of trade wars, but specific details of the impact on copper prices are not elaborated [3]. Spot - The document provides a table format for spot information including location, mid - price, price change, and inventory details, but specific data is not filled in [6]. 期现价差 No specific content provided. Exchange Inventory No specific content provided. Bonded Area Inventory - Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - Processing fees are falling [15]. CFTC No specific content provided. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market will be in a tight balance. A detailed China annual supply - demand balance table for copper is also provided [19][21].