Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content Core View - The prices of oils and fats are in a consolidation phase with a neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic supply of oils and fats. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamental situation of oils and fats is neutral with stable import inventory [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamental situation of oils and fats. The main risk factor is the El Niño weather [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 118 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 58 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 56 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] Demand - No specific data or analysis on demand is provided in the given content except for the mention of demand-related items in the table of contents Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [2] - Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Other Factors - The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase [2][3][4] - Bullish factors include the US soybean stock-to-use ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil tremor season [5] - Bearish factors include the relatively high historical price of oils and fats, continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oils and fats, weak macroeconomic conditions, and high expected production of related oils and fats [5]
大越期货油脂早报-20251201
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-12-01 01:40