大越期货燃料油早报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently in a short - term state of oversupply. The market is mainly boosted by geopolitical factors. It is expected that fuel oil will fluctuate slightly stronger. The FU2601 contract will operate in the range of 2450 - 25080, and the LU2602 contract will operate in the range of 3010 - 3060 [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure will continue to be under pressure due to the replenishment of blending raw material components and the increase in East - West arbitrage cargo flows. The upstream supply of low - sulfur fuel oil suppresses the market, and the mild downstream bunker fuel demand around the Singapore hub further drags down the overall market dynamics. The spot is nearly flat to the futures. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 285,000 barrels to 20.599 million barrels in the week of November 26th. The price is below the 20 - day moving average which is trending down. The high - sulfur main position holds short positions with a decrease in shorts, and the low - sulfur main position holds long positions with an increase in longs [3] - The FU main contract futures price rose from 2453 to 2486, an increase of 1.35%. The LU main contract futures price rose from 3018 to 3026, an increase of 0.27%. The FU basis changed from - 10 to 3, an increase of 130.43%. The LU basis changed from 34 to 32, a decrease of 5.70% [5] - The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel decreased from 437.00 to 436.00, a decrease of 0.23%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel decreased from 456.00 to 452.00, a decrease of 0.88%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel increased from 335.60 to 337.72, an increase of 0.63%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel increased from 420.50 to 426.50, an increase of 1.43%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel increased from 304.75 to 310.37, an increase of 1.84%. The price of Singapore diesel increased from 626.62 to 627.20, an increase of 0.09% [6] 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia's restrictions on fuel oil exports; cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4] - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, resonating with neutral demand [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil suppresses the market, and the mild downstream demand drags down the market, rated neutral. Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is at 337.72 US dollars/ton with a basis of 3 US dollars/ton, and Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is at 421.33 US dollars/ton with a basis of 32 US dollars/ton, rated neutral. Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 285,000 barrels to 20.599 million barrels in the week of November 26th, rated bullish. Disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average which is trending down, rated bearish. Main positions: The high - sulfur main position holds short positions with a decrease in shorts, rated bearish; the low - sulfur main position holds long positions with an increase in longs, rated bullish. Expectations: The fuel oil fundamentals are in a short - term oversupply state, and the market is boosted by geopolitics, with a slightly stronger oscillation [3] 3.4 Spread Data - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only shows the FU - LU spread graph [10] 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory data from September 17th to November 26th is provided. For example, on September 17th, the inventory was 23.159 million barrels with an increase of 120,000 barrels; on November 26th, the inventory was 20.599 million barrels with a decrease of 2.85 million barrels [8]