大越期货贵金属早报-20251201

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 1, 2025, the trading of the CME was disrupted. The expectation of interest - rate cuts continued to rise, and there was progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The silver market was in short supply and trading was active. The silver price soared, driving up the gold price. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks made the gold price remain strong, and the silver price also increased [4][5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The CME had a major outage on Friday. The gold price was pulled up by the silver price. The three major US stock indexes rose across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed slightly higher. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield rising 2.3 basis points to 4.0132%. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.44. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0713. COMEX gold futures closed up 1.59% at $4256.4 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The supply shortage trading was hot, and the silver price soared. The three major US stock indexes rose across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed slightly higher. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield rising 2.3 basis points to 4.0132%. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.44. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0713. COMEX silver futures closed up 6.06% at $57.085 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 5.88, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 90,873 kilograms, an increase of 450 kilograms, which was bearish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish. The main net position was long, and the main long position increased, which was bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis was - 56, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which was neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 558,882 kilograms, a daily increase of 11,906 kilograms, which was bullish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish. The main net position was long, and the main long position decreased, which was bullish [5]. 3. Today's Focus - The report suggests paying attention to the PMI data of China, the US, and Europe, as well as the speech of the Governor of the Bank of Japan. Specific time points include the speech of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at 09:05, China's November RatingDog manufacturing PMI at 09:45, Switzerland's October real retail sales at 15:30, France's November manufacturing PMI final value at 16:50, Germany's November manufacturing PMI final value at 16:55, the eurozone's November manufacturing PMI final value at 17:00, the UK's November manufacturing PMI final value and the UK's October central bank mortgage approvals at 17:30, the US's November S&P Global manufacturing PMI final value at 22:45, the US's November ISM manufacturing index at 23:00, and the speech of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra at 23:30 [4][15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and it was difficult for the gold price to fall. Recently, the three main factors of the US government shutdown, the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the concern about the escalation of Sino - US tariffs have improved significantly, and the support for the gold price has weakened significantly [9]. - Silver: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly followed the gold price. The concern about tariffs had a stronger impact on the silver price itself, and the silver price was prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 2.82% on November 28, 2025, compared with the previous day. The short positions decreased by 1.25%, and the net position increased by 5.14%. The SPDR Gold ETF position fluctuated and increased [28][33]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 3.27% on November 28, 2025, compared with the previous day. The short positions increased by 3.62%, and the net position increased by 2.16%. The silver ETF position increased significantly and was still higher than that of the same period in the previous two years. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [30][36][40].