大越期货纯碱早报-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily View - The fundamentals show that the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is - 32 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - The national inventory of soda ash plants is 1587,400 tons, a decrease of 3.47% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Lithium Factors: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - Bearish Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a high level in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1177 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1145 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 32 yuan. The closing price of the main contract has increased by 0.09%, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe has increased by 0.44%, and the main basis has decreased by 11.11% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1145 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 220 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [14]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.08%. The weekly output of soda ash is 698,200 tons, of which 383,100 tons is heavy soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been continuous new production capacity plans for soda ash. The new production capacity in 2023 is 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 108.16% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,200 tons, and the operating rate is 74.85% [26]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national inventory of soda ash plants is 1587,400 tons, a decrease of 3.47% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2022, the supply - demand situation of soda ash has fluctuated. In 2023, the supply - demand difference was 110,000 tons. In 2024E, the supply - demand difference is expected to be 157,000 tons [34].