氯碱周报：SH：供需仍存压力累库持续，预计价格偏弱运行，V：供应压力增长，价格难有持续向上驱动-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The caustic soda industry faces supply - demand pressure, with high - level开工率 in Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises, high inventory, and weak demand support. The price is expected to run weakly [2]. - The PVC market is in an oversupply situation. The supply pressure remains high, the demand is sluggish, and the price is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda - Price and Market Situation: The caustic soda futures price has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - environment, supply changes, and demand trends. The spot price has also shown instability, and the market is concerned about the future supply and demand balance [8]. - Supply: The industry开工率 is at a high level, and the inventory pressure of caustic soda plants is continuously increasing. As of Thursday, the national weighted average开工负荷 rate was 89.69%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from last week, while Shandong's开工率 was 91.66%, a 0.22% increase. The inventory in East China and Shandong has increased [21][27]. - Demand: The main downstream alumina industry is expected to have more production capacity put into operation in the first quarter of next year and may start stockpiling in the fourth quarter. The new production capacity is estimated to increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year [29][32]. - Export: The export of caustic soda weakened in October, and the estimated export profit declined [58]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - Price and Market Situation: The PVC futures price has been in a bottom - shock pattern, and the spot price has continued to weaken. The core contradiction is the lack of substantial improvement in supply and demand [65][66]. - Profit: The industry profit of PVC has been continuously deteriorating, including the profits of different production methods such as the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method [71]. - Supply: The开工率 of the PVC industry has rebounded as some maintenance enterprises have resumed production. This week, the overall开工 load rate of PVC powder was 78.85%, a 1.37 - percentage - point increase from last week [81][87]. - Demand: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, and the domestic demand has not improved significantly. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average level of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [95][96]. - Inventory: The PVC inventory has decreased slightly, but the total inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [103]. - Export: In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 312,100 tons, with an average export price of $605 per ton. The cumulative export from January to October was 3.2338 million tons. The import volume in October was 10,900 tons, with an average import price of $725 per ton, and the cumulative import from January to October was 186,400 tons [121].