大越期货玻璃早报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the glass industry are weak. With production profit repair being sluggish, supply contraction falling short of expectations, downstream deep - processing orders being weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory at a historically high level, the glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 1053 yuan/ton, up 1.15% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - size glass is 1004 yuan/ton, up 1.62%. The main basis is - 49 yuan/ton, down 7.55% [7]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1004 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. 3.3 Fundamentals - Cost Side - Not elaborated in detail in the report 3.4 Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 220, with an operating rate of 74.51%. The number of operating production lines is at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 157,200 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [25][27]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [5][30]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.362 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.49% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [43]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [44]. 3.8 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe region and cold - repair in the industry have caused production losses [4]. - Negative factors: Weak real - estate terminal demand, low number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises, and cautious attitudes of traders and processors [5]. 3.9 Main Logic - The glass supply has stabilized at a low level, the orders from downstream deep - processing factories are dismal, and the glass factory inventory has increased. It is expected that the glass will fluctuate weakly at a low level [6].